They will be be real, and amazing, but their reach will be limited. Downtowns of cities and dedicated lanes of highways will be their primary space. Outside of that, a driver must be in driving mode, no matter the level of autonomy being used.
People (well, men) love their cars and love the power they have, so to some degree driving will continue. AI will never be smart enough (before 2028) to make cars 100% autonomous, and the accidents that do occur will have exaggerated media attention. Governments always err on the side of caution in case they get something wrong.
Governments are losing power. Corporations are having more income and influence. Governments will legislate against anything that undermines their authority. Any connection between official finance and crypto currency will be outlawed. Cryptos will still exist, but in the black market. Official physical currency will be gone by 2028.
A major crypto-currency will arise from illegal gambling sites. It will have legitimate uses, but also used for gambling. It will be tied to the profits of the gambling sites themselves. So it would appear to be a co-operative where you get to be the gambler and banker at the same time. But the overlords will take their percentage and still be the ultimate winners…
FLYING CARS & DRONES
Flying cars will be an odd thing that never takes off.
Flying drones and wheeled robots will be everywhere, making 90% of deliveries. Governments will control the tracking and infrastructure, and taxes will be paid. There will be many providers using the same backbone.
There will only be 3 types of stores left:
- Flagship, like Apple has – your order will arrive in a day or two
- Full service, where you get pampered and don’t mind paying a premium – take the goods home with you
- No brand. Cheap, un-branded stuff
Will die like 3D TV did. The minor advantage of your aircon turning on 10 minutes before you get home will be offset with a hatred of machines taking your choices away in your home, in an age where they are doing it everywhere else.
Democratic countries will ban autonomous weapons, but their enemies will allow them. Ultimately every country will have them. Humans in exoskeletons will prove to be better fighters, and brave humans will become heroes.
Monkeys have been successfully cloned in China. Humans will be cloned, somewhere, somehow.
Radical vegans will be one of the new terrorists. Lab-grown meat will become affordable and farming animals for their flesh will disappear rapidly – helping the fight against global warming (cows fart a lot)
Most not really democratic counties (Africa mostly) will end up being democratic due to economic pressures from China spreading its wings. Whenever a country is about to collapse due to obvious bribery (from China), China will step in and support democracy to save their investments.
Wage growth will still be minimal, while corporations make more profit, and the 1% become richer. The reason – robots and AI are cheaper than people, the value of human employees will decrease. Our relative worth will keep decreasing, but of course we will still be needed as consumers. The 1% will test how far they can push things, and somewhere they will go too far…
REBELLION / POLICE STATES
At least one western country will see a revolt against and demotion of the 1%. Other “democracies” will react by restricting the rights of citizens.
Facebook will be replaced by a non-profit that provides the same benefits for a minor fee. This will be the first of a wave of public reactions to losing their anonymity. and privacy.
A portal where you can watch anything ever produced for a small fee will exist. Think Spotify for video. Meanwhile Spotify will offer mainstream and “discovery” subscriptions, where mainstream is cheaper.
World leaders will have social occasions – no policies officially discussed – where alcohol and perhaps drugs will be consumed. The first time it happens, public opinion will spur others to do the same to remain popular. Nobody else is predicting this 🙂
There are 5 main reasons for people dying of old age. One of these will be solved by 2028, increasing the longevity of the very elderly by at least 5 years.
We will send people to Mars. They will die. We won’t go back for decades.
The glorification in the media will dissipate over the next decade, as advances slow. All the obvious areas will be perfected – so Siri and Alexa will have so much data they will learn to respond how we expect them to. By 2028, true intelligence will have begun, but it will be private and secret. No public displays of abilities. The catalyst for change will be autonomous robots who ask questions in a 3D environment, just how young humans learn.
After decades of becoming too similar, left and right will become more divergent. Far more. Think Bernie Sanders vs Donald Trump, drugs vs no drugs, abortion vs rights. Regional differences will also become more apparent. In the USA, the Bible Belt and the coasts will become so radically different that secession will become a potential reality. The same pattern will occur throughout the west. Expect a trend towards city states, with regional areas aligning with whoever they want that is nearby.
There will be another one before 2018. It won’t be due to broad financial issues. It will affect some areas and sectors more than others. In the USA it could be from:
- teacher strikes
- political interference from billionaires and the Big 5
- race riots and subsequent backlashes
- robots / job automation
Basically when any grown-ups are naughty, their pocket money will be withheld. Ultimately the 1% will fight growing dissent with economic force.
For the first time since the Great Depression, people will turn to self-sufficiency en masse.
An 18-25 political movement will emerge. To date they have been the most under-represented demographic in politics. Social media and lower employment prospects will stimulate a major movement, and it will of course have a charismatic leader. Given their numbers, they will potentially get a balance of power, as the Greens sometimes do in some countries.
As marijuana becomes legalised globally, the next steps will be two-fold:
- Continued prohibition of drugs of damaging dependance like heroin and ice/meth
- Acceptance of nob-addictive psychedelics and mood enhancers like LSD and Ecstasy
Micro-dosing will take off. Drug experience centres (with close supervision) will become reality, and a new religion will emerge from those taking DMT.
REFUGEES / MIGRATION
Economically, to maintain “growth”, first world countries will continue to accept migrants and refugees. But their potential for citizenship will be much less. I expect that special visas will be used, and immigrants will be effectively on probation for many years, or always be a special class, like non-voting shares in NewsCorp.
Fake media will be solved, to a degree. Legitimate news organisations will band together to present a unified front of real news. Governments will provide their own real news. And there will be an un-regulated mess containing everyone else and capturing the attention of the majority of people.
In Australia we have the educated, sane people watching ABC news (government, but independent), and 80% watching commercial news programs with their abundant problems. This will continue, but the real news will become more authoritative, and the rest will be for sale more.
THE DECLINE OF THE USA
The USA’s love of nostalgia and tradition will become problem, in the Bible Belt. There will be a war between progress (the Big 5 tech corporations) and tradition (the Bible Belt). The USA will be seen as a fractured country, and the economy will suffer the most in the next recession – it could be an America-only recession.
It has been predicted for decades, but with the recession, the USD will stop being the default global currency. American dollars will return home, China pulling the strings, and other currencies will take its place. It won’t be one currency. It will be the Euro and Yuan. They will collude to maintain a stable exchange rate between the two.
In the USA, militia will take on a stronger presence and role. In a natural disaster or civil disturbance, non-government forces will provide the best response, and gain more trust from the public.
Conformity will dissipate as TV and Movies spend less time glamorising middle-America, because such entertainment is becoming more sophisticated and radical.
Fashion will be dictated from overseas more than ever.
Leading up to 2028, Asia and North America will suffer more and more natural disasters, directly caused by climate change. Economies will be affected, and insurance companies will become more conservative.
But before 2028, things will change. The next mini Ice Age will begin. The northern-most of the northern hemisphere will suffer terribly.
Nothing will change.
Terrorism will fade away for a while (except for vegans). It never lasts. After the USA leaves, many middle eastern countries will start to prosper.
Saudi Arabia will be bankrupt by 2028 and their sponsoring of radical Islam will end.