Author Archives: Futures Broker

Deconstructed Cruise: Outback

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Fundamentally, while a mass market cruise is meant to be about the destinations, many people stay on the ship. One study suggests 34%.

Once destinations have been removed from the equation, there is no need to be on a ship. When we replace the cruise with a land-based alternative, the same rule applies: location matters not.

The idea is to replace the cruise with a similar experience, but held somewhere cheap. In this instance we are thinking outback Australia, easily reached from Perth or Adelaide, and not hard from other Australian capitals. The outback, being desert, has very low land costs… Cheaper than a cruise ship.

The Pool

Water access needs to be investigated*, but otherwise, the pool, structurally, will be the point of focus, so a lot can be spent on it. We are talking cabanas, swim-up bars, wave pools, even a surf park. Water slides and splash parks for the kids. More water than a cruise has!

The Food

The cruise food experience can be replicated easily, but with two key differences: we have open space, so people who want a bit of isolation (think honeymooners, families with kids) can have as much space as they need. And with fewer safety concerns we can have crazy BBQs and bonfires, a la Burning Man.

By embracing the Australian BBQ vibe (ask any Aussie about Bunnings sausages), we can be cheap and iconic.

The Accommodation

Cabins, like in a caravan park, but with glamping options. Think airline classes, but with a few lower grades as well, with shared toilet/shower blocks, for those who want basic.

Also, of course, it is a trailer park for RVs and caravans. Being a day’s drive from the city, it becomes a fun weekend excursion in the van.

And a motel for the more traditional types. But no kitchens, and no TVs.

The Drink

Absolutely not officially highlighted but this is the key – relatively cheap drinking. Bar prices are 20% below what you pay at home. That in itself is sustainable given the lower overheads. Offerings are not highly varied – for example 10 set cocktails, and perhaps 3 choices for each type of wine.

The “all you can drink” option is the secret sauce. It is calculated precisely and changes with time to be optimal. It of course only covers “basics” and the wine is as basic as you can get. There is a total alcohol limit on your card, per night, that sounds reasonable to everyone. People will find ways to cheat which is why security is a large expense.

The Entertainment

Simply put, the same as a cruise, but not as good. More basic, drunken people don’t need fancy. Have a highlight band night on Saturday, high energy quality covers band (like at fancy weddings). Otherwise it is trivia, karaoke, DJs and something cultural. Pokies, of course.

The Activities

Anything from a cruise ship can be done the same, and cheaper. Plus there is land, so think dune buggies and day trips. Cinema can be outdoor cinema.

Ultimately…

This is a budget holiday as cheap as Bali but easier to get to for just a few days.

*If it is near the coast, a small desalination plant makes sense, and makes it “eco”.

Getting Australia to Buy EV Utes

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EV adoption in Australia has been low compared to Europe and Asia, and more like the US. Which is not surprising, as we both have big car cultures, with insecure men wanting bullbars, but also we are large lands with long drives, and range anxiety.

In Australia the culture, especially for older folk, is quite keen on caravans, and often a dream is to “do a lap” around the continent. This takes care and planning with combustion engines, and is impossible (currently) with EVs.

The weight of a caravan, and the drag, means that typically the range of an EV utility vehicle will halve, while a petrol ute will use twice as much fuel. A diesel vehicle will use 50% more fuel, and is the most common vehicle type for towing because of that.

I can see two factors that will allow EVs into this important space, given the typically the best-selling car model in Australia is a ute – Ranger or HiLux.

  1. The new Donut Battery system, coming out very soon, which promises double the range for an EV for the same weight and range, using solid-state technology. That makes EVs as good as diesel.
  2. One savvy ute brand will come out with a caravan of their own, or caravan specs. The shape of the caravan will align with the shape of the towing vehicle, to reduce drag. A system, that includes integration between the car and caravan for things like electrics, braking and so on.

The profit from the caravan can make the EV ute cheaper.

Reversing Some Tech – It is Happening!

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We are aware that hackers are huge problem in the modern world, although for most people it is someone else’s problem. But the more we hear of it, the more wary we become. There are trends towards mitigating the risk by removing aspects of technology. This was in the news today:

Hong Kong’s banks have a new weapon against scams: Accounts that require customers to visit a branch to access their funds.

The territory’s Monetary Authority calls these accounts a “Money Safe.”

…Hong Kong’s government will now promote Money Safe with advertising and other tactics, and is already encouraging residents to use the accounts to store any cash they don’t intend to spend in the near future.

Presuming that the in-person verification cannot be thwarted, I love this. True peace of mind in a digital world. Many people otherwise can and do store cash secretly at home…

Similar measures are taking place in other areas.

Australian Defence has signed a multi-year Deed of Standing Offer with Google Australia to deliver enhanced, secure and air-gapped hyperscale cloud capability for Defence’s ICT Environment. It is confusing considering the entire idea of cloud computing was originally to be distributed across multiple locations, but this is an instance without connections to the outside world, especially useful for portable computation. It cannot be hacked remotely.

Also in Australia, the government just made it mandatory for supermarkets and gas stations to take cash. Which means cash is sticking around, and cash in your wallet cannot be hacked.

People with modern cars are resorting to old-school methods to protect them from theft, because it is easy to clone a digital key. Expect more and more physical keys returning as an option (at least) for vehicles.

And Tesla is in trouble because someone died in a burning car because electrical failure meant the doors wouldn’t open the usual way. Hopefully we return to mechanical doors, and more knobs and dials for things like air con.

And finally, smart homes haven’t really taken off, except for HVAC in the US. And door bells / security. I sense a trend towards more self-reliance, like backup power supplies and generators, and tech-free defence.

An Alternative to the 5% Billionaire Tax in California

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The proposal might be on the ballot in the state elections of November 2026; a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of billionaires, including any illiquid wealth.

Illiquid is the bug-bear. It isn’t necessarily easy to cash out on such things. I would argue that they can easily get a cash loan, but I appreciate that this factor makes the tax a harder sell.

Instead, I propose something far more pre-emptive and socialist. Give 5% of your unrealised wealth to the state. The state becomes a passive investor in the business that made the billionaire rich.

To lessen the potential shock of that, when giving great wealth to someone, it should include 5% that is held in escrow, for the state to take, if and when the person meets the wealth threshold (which might of course vary in the future). But also, the rich person and take it out of escrow at any time, but they must acknowledge that the state can potentially take it from them one day.

Trump is already being very socialist and taking a share of some major companies. We just need to make sure that having such a stake doesn’t lead to governmental nepotism.

Some 2026 Predictions

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Cars – hybrid cars will peak, partly because of a change in subsidies. The US will go their own way…
PHEV will make huge gains. Once battery technology improves further, pure EVs will dominate, maybe from 2028 onwards. There will be a death spiral for gasoline, and it will be effectively dead by the mid-2030s.

Trump – it has taken a while to kick in, but in early-2026 all of America will know that inflation is worse, unemployment is worse, and new industry has not taken off. The mid-terms will go very Democrat and Trump will double-down on everything bad he has done.

AI – the bubble will burst, but only for some. It will be enough to drag down the stock market for the entire year (US but also most where). However, those who have not gone all-in (Google, Microsoft, Meta) will come out as winners.

War – Trump will do some good in places like Nigeria, but his claiming of oil and resources will be bold and embarrassing. After “conquering” Venezuela, he will try to intimidate Greenland and fail terribly.

Everywhere – immigration will slow substantially, and it will be the #1 election issue. After that, “qualified immigration” will be important, because capitalism doesn’t work with fewer people.

Fertility – one country will make the boldest plan ever to boost births and the rest of the world will follow suit. Babies will be the most important asset.

BRICS – or something like it, will create a stablecoin based on the average of the group’s currencies, and they will go ballistic due to first mover advantage. Because it will be state-run, no competition. In the US, a USD stablecoin competition between numerous parties will lead to a lot of fraud and corruption.

Drone terrorism – will affect enough major events to make people fearful of mass attendances.

Drugs – one smart tourist destination will make certain psychedelic drugs legal in accredited clinics.

Toilets for the Global Poor

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Trump’s demolition of USAID means that many worthy causes are now suddenly without any funds. Little care was made around what is the most beneficial or not.

In Madagascar, they were funding toilets for people who didn’t have any (or didn’t have any that were sanitary).

I looked into it a bit deeper and I was shocked but also not so surprised that charity can get it so wrong. Compare the efforts in Madagascar with those in India, which are directly from the government. Yes, India has the advantage of scale and long-term priorities…

Madagascar – the design of the MVP1 toilet had two main features. A self-closing (weighted) lid to keep flies away, and the ability to store a month or more of waste from multiple families. The cost per toilet, based on the scheme total divided by installations, was over $2000 USD, and maybe more. The roll-out supplied 4500 toilets at most. But here’s the kicker, they need to be regularly emptied, by hand, something the locals generally cannot afford!

India – most of the rural toilets are twin-pit pour-flush toilets, where fecal matter decomposes into manure over 1-2 years without emptying. And the average price in USD is $130.

Too many charities re-invent the wheel for bad results. Simply copying what India does, in all the countries that need toilets, is the way forward.

Murder Decline in the US

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Trump, of course, is taking credit by removing illegal aliens and filling the streets of “blue cities” with federal troops.

His base will believe that, which is sad, because it detracts from the wonderful on-the-ground work that is changing crime in America, hopefully permanently.

First of all, there is a correlation between opioid overdoses and murders. While the government typically does not provide data on which murders are gang-related, it is reasonable to suggest that gang-warfare is worse when there is a bigger market for drugs. In a declining market, you have fewer dealers, which means fewer gunfights.

Targeted interventions in the US have played a key role in reducing homicide and gang-related violence since 2023, focusing on data-driven enforcement, community partnerships, and violence interruption programs. These efforts, often federally supported, prioritize high-risk individuals, guns, and hotspots while building local trust.

  • The DOJ Operation Overdrive and Operation North Star concentrated on apprehending violent criminals, resulting in fewer murders
  • Community Violence Intervention uses (mostly) former gang members to reach out to people at risk
  • Red flag laws
  • Violence prevention offices 

Distributed Exiled Tech

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While I don’t think it will ever go far enough, many countries forbid certain kinds of technology, science, and experiments. For example, I cannot imagine any country allowing an experiment where an ape is mated with a human.

But scientists often find it impossible to resist at least trying something, regardless of ethical or moral qualms.

Soon we might see restrictions on AI implementation, especially if it is enforced by chipmakers, who can build safeguards into the chip itself, like auto-off-switches, speed-limits or other governors.

Then what is an AI researcher meant to do if that ends their particular angle they have spent a decade working on? Enter the rogue entity with a lot of cash. It could simply be Elon Musk, or China, but it will be masked behind nested shell companies.

Here’s how it works… experts in various fields like AI, weapons tech, disease research, and genetics are approached while their research is still allowed. They are given a few details, except that there will be a place for them if they ever want to go rogue, and the funding will be immense.

When the time comes, each of them is approached. They are offered a relocation to a foreign land – typically not the same physical location as their research counterparts – although existing teams could be kept together. They know nothing about who funds them, but they will be very well looked after, and normal spycraft will be utilised, like blackmail potential.

They work remotely from their handler, who they only communicate with online and anonymously. That handler looks after the sharing of data and ideas between disparate groups.

It could already exist… If they are good, we will never know.

Not Obvious – The More Efficient News Service

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Many news articles are just lazy rehashes around something sensationalist.
For example, arrest, court date set, case is tomorrow, case proceeding, result, sentencing date decided, sentencing, reactions from the aggrieved party…
Half of that is needless. We know the aggrieved party will say that they wanted a harsher sentence.

The same goes for many things, people doing exactly as was expected. People celebrated in Times Square on NYE.

While I get the fundamentals – give them what they want – a niche news service for me, smart, pedantic time-poor people wanting the big picture.

It doesn’t have to be a standalone service, just a feed option – do I want to know that the person who died had a funeral?

Self-Driving Getaway Mode

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Obviously it will have to have some contrived legal function…

Watching car chases in movies these days I keep wondering, could a self-driving car do better? Especially if in the future it knows where all the other vehicles are, because they are all using the same digital infrastructure. The car could even alert other cars to back off for their own safety.

Brake fail mode?
Ambulance mode?

Meanwhile, and more seriously, I would like to see an evacuation mode, where all vehicles get routed to the least congested roads, and cannot do anything to impede others. You don’t want to be stuck in traffic when a tsunami is coming!