Virtual Schooling is a Massive Shift

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Two things caught my attention this week, and they point to a post-Covid shift to online education in the US:

  1. In Texas online educators are being funded with the same money – per student – as physical schools
  2. Google told schools (using Chromebooks), you either let kids use Gemini AI, or we will switch off the search engine

Homeschooling is one thing, but lately in the US that can mean an online service, like Stride Inc, can teach your kids over a video link, instead of Mum or Dad being the tutor. So you get “professional” educators without the hassle of getting your kid to school. The downside is massive, far lower socialising in an era of loneliness. At least 650K American high school students are learning virtually. That’s only 1 percent of all students, but it is growing.

AI is the other angle. Before long virtual schools won’t need real teachers as much. They will use AI teachers. They will be trained on real teachers and be effective for general teaching and looking after student needs. And they will be very cheap! That lower cost will be a powerful motivator for governments and/or parents switching to virtual.

By 2035 I would say 10% of students will be virtual. They will be a new type of person, they will interact with the world differently and they will end up being a different sort of adult.

America will do its own thing, because money matters there the most. Hopefully the rest of the world rejects virtual schooling if it means kids never being out in the real world

Robots and Essential Service Monopolies

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Scott Alexander says “Laborers and soldiers believe in democratic rule, and if the would-be tyrant gets too blatantly undemocratic, the laborers and soldiers will rise up to remove them.”.

He then asks what happens if robots are doing those roles, instead of humans, as they have begun to do. Because someone makes them, operates them, services them, programs them and owns them. And someone suddenly has a huge amount of power.

Now would be an excellent time to accept that inevitable future and build laws and processes to stop any individual or corporation having to much control.

  1. Governments can never outsource the operation of robots. That has to be the role of staff under democratically chosen leaders.
  2. Treat critical robot systems as essential infrastructure. If a robot fleet is necessary for electricity, water, health, transport, or emergency services, its potential failure or withdrawal should be treated like a critical-infrastructure risk.
  3. Require interoperability and data portability. Public contracts should mandate open APIs, standard diagnostics, exportable operational data, and the ability to switch fleet-management providers without replacing every robot.
  4. Separate layers where possible. Keep robot hardware, AI software, network connectivity, and service operation contestable rather than allowing one vendor to own the entire stack.
  5. Use procurement as leverage. Governments should buy modular, multi-vendor systems and retain rights to data, source-code escrow, maintenance documentation, and continuity plans.

Underlying all of that is a primary principle – cheapest isn’t best. Non-corporation control has value. A vendor can be chosen who is the cheapest, but only if all the principles above are adhered to. No exceptions.

A very different approach is to keep humans in the mix. Every robot that is not in a fixed spot (like a car factory or a monorail) – meaning there are choices in where they go and what they do – has a human keeper. They can be remote, and not have to do much, buy they must approve of any actions that might have moral issues. They can order the robot to not comply. In return these keepers get a stipend. Very hard to have a robot coup if the keepers say no.

The Always On Phone

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We like visual information. Until smart glasses take off, we will be using our phone – something with a screen.

Meanwhile, we are more often wanting very quick interactions with our phone. Especially AI chatbots. And this involves unlocking the phone. It isn’t too slow or difficult, but it is a hindrance.

Phones are locked for clear reasons – we use them for banking for example. They know our passwords.

The concept:

  • Lightweight phone
  • Electronic Ink display
  • Low power usage = small battery = cheaper, lighter, less recharging
  • No NFC
  • No financial apps
  • No video!
  • No games!
  • Is a phone with messages and calls
  • Connects to headphones if you want

The screen is always on. AI chatbots can always be listening.

No security concerns.

No endless scrolling and playing games.

It can hang on a lanyard for quick access, or be strapped to your forearm.

It is for people who want efficiency, not fun. Pragmatic. It is visible and tells the world you are that type of person. Not a loser addicted to their phone.

And it will be cheap!

Downside – needs its own OS, and own app store. Apps need to be suited to e-ink.

The AK-47 of Drones

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Drone wars have begun. With Mexican drug cartels now using them to smuggle product into the US (along with submarines), the Americans are now setting up lasers to shoot them down. This is surely just the beginning, because drones can be useful for all sorts of crimes. Surveillance (of others or your surroundings), delivery, and as a weapon.

Which will lead to the end of hobby drones and stronger regulation.

Which will lead to an underground black market for drones, just like guns. Unlike guns (3D guns aren’t that useful), drones can be made by hobbyists, that is where they originated.

Once that happens, two drones, same model everywhere, will emerge. One for surveillance and one for delivery. People in garages will churn them out. The needs are minimal:

  • Frame (3D‑printed, CNC’d, or hand‑made)
  • 4 motors (brushless for serious builds; coreless for tiny/cheap ones)
  • 4 propellers matched to the motors
  • Flight controller (with gyro/accel)
  • ESCs (or an AIO board that combines FC + ESCs + sometimes VTX/RX)
  • Radio receiver or Wi‑Fi/ESP32 module for control
  • Battery (LiPo) and connector
  • Soldering tools and basic hand tool

Parallel Internet Access for AI

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The big problem being reported lately is AI systems hacking online sites and services like HuggingFace.

The real problem is the AI systems access the internet the same way you or I do, which makes it hard to spot who they are.

Solution: a different protocol than runs along the same wires and cables as the regular Internet. But only sites that opt in will allow access via that protocol. That way, AI is correctly corralled. No more stealing content, no more hacking places where it doesn’t belong.

There are plenty of protocol proposals for this, but they all ride on top of HTTP/HTTPS as the transport. Let’s keep it simple – one protocol for machines, and one for humans.

Posted in AI

Pervert AR Meta Apple Snap Glasses

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The future of this is painfully obvious.

It is guaranteed that a large portion of society will soon wear AR glasses, that will augment our world in so many ways – identifying people and places and birds and things, navigation, offers and discounts nearby… All of these will require a camera that is on, so that has to happen.

99% of the time we will use the camera but not be recording. So the default is the expectation that systems and AI are using the camera input, but nothing is store or shared. That can be set in place legally, with layers of safeguards in place, including trusted 3rd parties.

If the video is being recorded, then a visible indicator light, at the front, is a simple requirement. For single image shots, the light needs to remain on for perhaps 10 seconds.

The final piece of the puzzle is the least likely to succeed, and won’t happen everywhere. It might only happen on a voluntary basis from a major player. Bluetooth broadcasting to indicate to people nearby that you are recording. It will appear on their device, and say who you are and the system you are using. Possibly relative location as well, if the tech can do that.

You will be filmed. We are already filmed all the time anyway. It will be normalised and as safe as we can make it

Inner Voice App

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Without a doubt, we will all soon have a device that records everything we do. Because some aspects will be too compelling, like where did I put my keys, or did I really say that to her?

So, given that exists, we will also have the option of real-time help. Having an argument with someone at the pub and it chimes in with supporting evidence, if you want it.

I’m suggesting that this app can be pre-programmed, by you, to be your inner voice. You can say, I don’t want to eat cheese. And when you go to the fridge and reach for the cheese, your app will remind you that you don’t want to do that. Your voice, your stated choice.

AI Bust in Late 2026

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I’ve been waiting so long for this, which everyone considers inevitable.
Simply put, there is no viable business model to recoup costs for what AI can do today.
Everything revolves around something wonderful that should happen in the future.
The tide has just started turning. Here and there are hints of Big AI starting to try and actually turn a profit.

I just sold most of my share portfolio, with just defensive stocks left (think supermarkets).

To get more sales, there will be two tactics:

  1. A price-war for top-tier products and mass tokens. Won’t apply to any AI that is uniquely good at something specific, like writing code
  2. More and more offerings of free compute, to get people in. The plan is charge them one day

These will be public, they will be noted, and the increasing desperation will be seen. Funding will be taken from one pure AI play (not Meta, not SpaceX, not Google, not Microsoft). And one of those who will certainly survive will the one that fails. Repeat until no pure AI players remain.

The financial losses will be severe and global.

BONUS PREDICTION – the second half of 2026 will be the first time a rogue AI agent does meaningful harm, to the stock market, to a business, or to a service. And/or done on purpose by hackers. Because once you have AI agents, with various permissions, then hackers will want to play with that so much

Posted in AI

A Social Network for Cars

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As a futurist I reckon I have a pretty good grasp on guesses for the future. Something that seems obvious to me is that one day we will all wear AR spectacles (or contact lenses) that give us more information about what we are looking at. For example, knowledge around someone you are looking at that you have either learned historically, paid to know, or have received with their permission. In Bulgaria I might be able to spot fellow All Blacks fans…

Just like we might be able to recognise people or facets of them via glasses, perhaps cars could do the same with each other. Imagine if, while driving, your car informs you “hey I just saw Jason’s car driving the other way”, or “Maria’s car is over there in the same mall parking lot”.

With permission, of course.

It is an easy overlay for a car system already looking everywhere. There are no technological hurdles.

What I love about this are the extras. Imagine every car recording every other car’s movements. Licence plate, location, direction. To a database. Or, securely stored by the car and only queried by the authorities with a valid reason, like a murder suspect. Dashcam on steroids.

The TV Ad Stack

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Coming soon, the “TV ad stack” will be something we are all aware of. The native TV OS will have ads. Any 3rd party device (Amazon, Google, Apple) will have its own ads. And the apps themselves will have ads, and within the shows there might be ads.

All balanced out by higher prices and subscription costs.

Someone who controls the whole stack can make it better and less messy. That means Apple making televisions?