5figz – Amazon Bestsellers Go Rogue

Every merchant wants to go off on Amazon. But when they do, Amazon probably makes more profit from the success than they do.

I’m imagining a platform where you can buy the verified hits of Amazon – products that have sold 10K+

  • Amazon hits are rarely rip-offs, the review system (mostly) looks after that.
  • People trust a successful Amazon product
  • Amazon cannot stop you stating a fact about your success on their platform

While Amazon has put superhuman effort into getting products to people quicker, price tends to trump speed. So the 5figz fulfilment system doesn’t need absolute speed. However, the nature of the products – high-volume – lends itself to efficiency.

I figure that the game plan is to out-Amazon Amazon. Run at a loss with their most successful products, until the public learn that 5figz is where to get the best products without Amazon taking a crazy cut of proceeds.

And it scales scarily well. Start with the most expensive products with 10K sales. And as the business grows, fold in lower price items. Obviously selling 10K execycles is better all round than selling 10K hairbands.

Drone drug delivery

Illicit drugs are physical and require delivery, so al sorts of means have been deployed over the years. Most recently tunnels, submarines and drones.

Getting 1kg across the border in a retail drone is quite easy, and presumably it is done a lot.

But what about the last mile? How long before the end user gets their delivery by drone? We all know that drugs are often sold by the ounce, and a drone that can carry an ounce might be too small to notice.

A network of such drones could network drug delivery across a city. The transfer of the payload is what is needed, automation, no humans.

And less likely to get caught by the feds, if you start each drone journey and end it at a random place.

Dear Everyone

Advice app. Primarily romantic and social issues

Maximum 10 questions per day are sent out. Randomly chosen. Vetted by the developers..

Submitted question expires after 1 week if not chosen. Prompted to resubmit if still relevant. Max 1 question per month for anyone

Get points for giving advice. Points increase your chance of being chosen.

Questions have up to five answers, multiple can be selected

Questioner selects the advice they have taken.

Questioner is prompted to let the result be known, happy or otherwise. With commentary. Bonus points for those whose advice helped. Negative for bad advice that was taken.

Comments allowed but heavily vetted. Comments cost points.

The best questions/ results can appear on a chat video to promote the app.

Monetized later >>> One of the questions is a short 2 min survey. Many Points for answering.

Dual-Battery Phones

I was slightly disturbed to read that Emirates are switching to digital-only boarding passes. What if your phone dies?

Which got me thinking – your phone is becoming more and more necessary for everyday life, and everyone has battery issues. Yet your phone’s functions can be divided into essential (paying for things, being an actual phone, messages) and non-essential (games, Tik-Tok).

Whether actually having two different batteries and perhaps even operating systems, or whether virtually doing so, I think splitting the two types of function could become necessary.

Very simplistically, when your battery gets down to 30%, games and so on cannot be run, and only essentials will. It won’t be told to you like that – you will be told that your gaming battery is empty.

The other option could be two phones, an essential phone, and a game/social/camera device. They could even be joined together, two different sides of the one device, with screens front and back.

Next: Digital Twins of Self

Digital Twins are a growing phenomena in business, for example a digital map of a city or building or car that is used for controlling or monitoring it. Those digital twins do not think…

A Digital Twin of yourself can be non-thinking – say a scan of your body used for diagnostics or to determine how a particular drug will interact with it. Or an avatar in the metaverse.

But a thinking twin, a cognitive digital twin of a human, can be immensely useful. It won’t be a physical representation but a mental one.

Just like Microsoft now lets corporations train an AI instance via corporate documents and communications, a twin of a human brain will need similar access. They cannot read our mind, so they will have to ride along with us and capture the inputs and outputs of our brain:

  • the music we listen to
  • the things we see
  • conversations
  • what we read and write
  • the participants in our lives
  • the work we do

And especially important, how we feel during all aspects of our days.

The obvious solution is AR glasses that record everything, tethered to a powerful phone. It will start out relatively simplistically, being used to say record where it sees items were last used to help you find them.

Smarter systems will capture everything and be able to mimic how you respond, and be able to replicate you.

The best will be when they can tune in to your emotions. I have no idea what tech will be required, but we already measure heart rate and so on with smart watches. AR glasses can read what our eyes are doing (pupil dilation, directions we look – which can be giveaways), and subtle changes in our voice. Those alone, combined, maybe with some basic initial training (the tech actually asks you how you felt), might be sufficient.

What I don’t anticipate is a clone of us being us and interacting with the world. But the uses could be wonderful, especially entertainment.

A digital twin of self could surf the web, watch movies, listen to music, and then make suggestions around what you might like. It can go shopping for you, and, again, make suggestions.

It could – having been sufficiently trained – go on dating sites and find the one.

We could also go a bit crazy and let our digital twins hang out with each other. They could have conversations in seconds that would take hours in the real world.

The twins of musicians could meet up and make music together.

And of course, not a new idea, we could leave a twin behind when we die.

But the key is training, and for that we need a device, and the tech company that does that will become immensely successful.

Posted in AI

Methodology for Robot-Driven Artificial General Intelligence

Training computers on 2D images and what can be found online is cheap and convenient, but it is not how a human learns and in my opinion not part of what will achieve AGI.

We need to emulate a human as much as possible, with an android robot, and let it try/fail/learn in the real world, to achieve what humans do. In 3D, like humans do.

Uniformity and Mass Adoption

There needs to be a lot of robots, because the more we have, the quicker they can learn collectively. 10,000 is a starting guess.

For the SMAL described below, the robots need to be highly consistent, physically, for the whole duration, possibly decades. That means waiting until robots of the required specifications can be made in bulk (battery and fine mechanics will be key), making a lot of them, and never upgrading them if that at all changes their physical dimensions, including weight and weight distribution.

Hive Mind

Having 10,000 robots means that in one day of 10,000 attempt the same task, but in different environments, then they will collectively have enough knowledge to nail it in the future.

They will share knowledge, especially of objects they encounter in the world, and how those objects (including machines and people) tend to operate.

Training

Aside from some fundamentals which can be hard-coded, the robots begin their training from small children who are at age where they can talk and play and teach. Perhaps starting at age 3. The robots will operate with a vocabulary that fits who they are interacting with.

At age 3, all the robots will do is play with the child, with everything led by the child. Not dissimilar to how a child plays with toys and dolls, except they can tell the robot what to do, and it will try.

The robot will also observe and attempt to mimic what the child does, and the child knows that is what is happening, that it is trying to learn to be a person. After attempting to mimic something, the child will tell the robot if it succeeded or not, and what it got right or wrong, especially the latter.

SMAL

Once the attempt to mimic is completed, the robot will store the details. This will require a custom-made programming language, which stores details of the environment, what it observed, and the actions taken when attempting to mimic them.

Scaled Memory of Actions Language (SMAL) is called scaled because scaling things is easier, more efficient, and easier for AI to work with. For example, the speed the robot moved at can be described as part of a scale from 1 to 10, where say 4 is anywhere between 3 and 4 kms per hour. Things like lighting, time of day, how crowded it was, how it thinks it was feeling (pressured, for example), and the relative distances of all the relevant objects are from it, can be captured in scale form.

I moved at speed 3, in direction 22, my arms were in position 4 and 8, visibility was 6, I felt a 2 of pressure to perform, and the cat was a distance of 7 away. After 4 seconds I was closer to the cat which was at distance 6 now.

After the attempt, the child or instructor will tell them what was a key factor in what they did wrong. AI can later spot factors that might not have been explained, like failure happening more in poor visibility.

Enter AI

Then we add AI, similar to the chatbots of 2023, to the mix. That type of programming is good for coming up with an averaged, approximate response based on thousands of reports, separated into success and failure. Once learned sufficiently, a robot should be able to achieve a task, according to the environment, based on the collective past efforts.

Types of learning

It’s unlimited, but primarily will be the same as what children do and learn every day. They move around and interact, try their best, fail sometimes, and learn.

Graduating

After spending sufficient time, collectively at one year of childhood (years are approximate, children mature at different rates, one year increments should be fine), they all move to the next year, with the same child or someone new.

Once they reach adulthood, half of the robots are no longer needed. They know enough about the 3D aspects of the world to switch in AR, and be built into AR spectacles. Those ones observe and ask questions. Who is that? Why did you respond like that? There will still need to be many robots that are physical, to properly interact with the world, but at that stage they can take any form, they no longer need to be all the same dimensions. They will still need to learn some physicality, primarily things like hugs and shaking hands, and all the subtleties within.

Posted in AI

Can a Business Be a Country?

Tuvalu is shifting online, because their physical country is predicted to sink beneath the waves of climate change.

“…ensures that the government can continue to function, coordinate itself and the people, manage our resources, our tuna industry, and our domain name”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-27/tuvalus-plan-to-create-digital-twin-metaverse-climate-change/102223008

Because the income from tuna and the .tv domain name will continue, regardless, they need a way of giving some income to their citizens. In other words, without the land they become less of a country and more of a business.

Tuvalu will become a business, but retain many aspects of being a country, like having citizens.

So I am thinking that businesses can be set up to imitate a “country that becomes a business”.

That means that the business is owned by people, but every owner has an equal share.
That means being democratic.
That means ownership requires no effort or input from the owners.

So, how to decide ownership? It won’t be the workers who own it, any more than the tuna fishermen of Tuvalu own their country.

The Tuvalu people belong together by existing physically on the same islands. That is their commonality.

For a business, the closest to that is the fans and supporters of the business – their customers. Customers contribute to the well-being of a business, and they care about the success of the business. Customers can be big or small, but how much they spend doesn’t necessarily reflect how much they like it, so a one-vote-per-customer model sounds good, just like a country.

However, because it is so cheap and easy to become a citizen-customer of a retail brand, profits cannot be distributed equally amongst customers – otherwise people will just buy products to get the (ongoing) profits. It will only work for a non-profit, where being a citizen has non-monetary rewards and/or engagement.

AI Beats the Stock Market and Rules the World

Stockmarket Charts” by Negative Space/ CC0 1.0

People have been using computers to try and beat the stockmarket/sharemarket ever since computers existed. And for the most part they have failed. Certainly anyone who had an advantage has not been able to keep it secret, or stop others working it out. So we get told that AI cannot win at stock picking.

But that is when computers only look at the technicals – price movements and ratios and the like – pure numbers. The same can be said for the forex markets. People who do (supposedly) profit from these via skill are not numbers people – they research and use instinct and are cautioius.

Generative AI has quickly moved into the areas of words, images, video and even sound. These are not primarily mathematical, but the AI can be trained to spot patterns and make predictions. If it knows my writing, it can predict how I will finish a sentence. Of course it isn’t prescient, but an educated guess is all a stock-picker can make anyway.

Stock movements are triggered by all sorts of things. The layman in me knows of at lease these:

  • Company announcements
  • Economic indicators
  • News affecting sectors
  • Currency movements
  • Rumors
  • Boredom (stock is static and something else is shinier)
  • Re-balancing of funds – especially the top 50 type

There will be more, of course. The thing is, all of this, combined with the technicals, is knowable by AI, and patterns can be found. Analysts might know that a CEO being accused of anything sexually improper will definitely make a share price drop. But by how much, how do you weight such news? And what decides if the stock price recovers or not, later?

I predict that an AI system will one day be able to make stock picks based on news combined with fundamentals, enough to beat the market.

My only doubts are:

  • How much better can it be than humans?
  • How long will it take?

Could be that it needs 1,000 years of data. Or 10. No way of knowing until you try.

When and if it happens, the degree of improvement in results over human analysts might not need to be much at all. Once you have certainty in the level of good predictions it can make, then the bets can be ramped up using financial leveraging, whether that is borrowing money cheaper that the returns you will get, or trading in derivatives.

Then, if nobody else has access to such a tool, the owners (or even the AI masquerading as the owner) can very rapidly become the richest entity in the world, and then some – with all the power that brings with it.

Prolonging the Ukraine War

I never write about wars. Mostly because there are so few these days, but also because they do not interest me, and I don’t have much understanding of how they work.

But for an everyday person like me, it is becoming abundantly clear that the west wants the Ukraine war to take a long time. Last week the US sent missiles that could travel twice as far as the previous ones. This week:

The PM has now ordered the defence secretary to examine ways that the UK can provide Ukraine with fighter jets.

The RAF has a limited number of aircraft it could theoretically provide Ukraine – including about 20 older Typhoon jets.

This at a time when Russia is starting to win again. Not when Russia was retreating and such gifts could have ended things. Not at the beginning of the war. It is as if they give Ukraine only enough to keep the war going, and never enough to win.

And it makes sense. A war that takes 2-3 years will keep weakening Russia in all sorts of ways – militarily and economically of course. They will be less of a threat for a decade or more, as long as they don’t get to take over all of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, despite protests of how they cannot afford it, the West loves giving their weapons industry business.

Unless Putin does something crazy, or gets toppled, or gives up, the result seems to be incredibly obvious – in a year or two Russia will have some of east Ukraine, and the war will be over. But to get there 100K+ more people need to die. Truly sickening that men playing games can do so much harm.

The Return of Sponsorship

Soap Operas were named after being sponsored by a soap company. One company instead of a variety of ads.

ChatGPT etc will spawn an answer service (as distinct from a search engine). It might only happen when we fully understand what it can give accurate answers to. Quite possibly it outputs answers and ideas to explore. The latter being a fancy way of saying it is not confident of being correct.

People will learn what an answer service is good for. It won’t be for finding a local plumber! Which means the types of ads we see in search engines won’t necessarily apply.

If you want a summary of the best features of an iPhone, then perhaps the ads we are used to seeing on Google can appear there. But I expect it would be more like this:

  • Sponsored ad at the top, from a sponsor – one advertiser who sponsors all queries of that type. For example, an electronics store could sponsor all tech queries.
  • Embedded affiliate links to products – possibly a link to something akin to Google Shopping
  • A list of suggested resources, commercial or otherwise, at the bottom
  • Below those resources, some contextual ads, like on Google Search. Yep, relegated to the bottom, but still existing because why not.

But the sponsorship will be new and lucrative. All requests for the system to conjure up imagined lyrics can be sponsored by Spotify. All generative images by Adobe. And so on.

It could become new/fresh/different enough to become a successful form of advertising. We might see the return of soaps sponsoring TV shows.