This is my prediction for the “western world” 10 years from now, politically.

Existentially it will still be left v right, woke v bigots. But the lefties will need to keep things fresh, become better defined, and have more fun.

The woke left already embrace the queerest of people, and the rainbow is pretty much their symbol. Meanwhile, especially with Trump, the direction is clearly Handmaid’s Tale, a lack of color. In South Africa (and the US), famously, non-whites have been called colored. It has been hard for woke whites and blacks/coloreds to join as one, but I reckon calling myself colorful (I am white) and giving them the opportunity to do the same, could work.

Meanwhile beige has long been a bit condescending, so that works well as a new insult.

We already know the left/right divides of opinion and policy. But there are some grey areas that the colorfuls can aim to claim.

Crypto – let the beige folk have NFTs and memecoins, while we claim the coins that do not waste electricity to create, and have at least a spirit of non-profit.

Climate Change – take active measures of preparation, and let the beiges feel inadequate when the worst comes. Same for taking vaccines and not getting sick.

Clothing – let’s make what you wear to be unambiguous, starkly so. Colorfuls can claim colors, given the rainbow precedent. Incorporating minor aspects of the rainbow, like a multi-colored stripe that is in the corner like a logo, can mean ownership of color. The beige folk could/should end up being afraid of wearing anything with multiple colors. We can have men wearing kilts, body piercing, dyed hair, and footy umpires wearing pink. They can retreat into the murk of boring.

Cash – Trump et al will want to control people. We can be the leaders of anti-surveillance and pro-cash.

New Age – lots of MAGAs are getting into natural therapies and yoga. We need to have our own varieties that are differentiated. It will at least confuse them, and disenfranchise them.

Vaccines – easy win. Colorful schools can simply require full vaccination.

Fossil Fuels – easy. Be 100% off them, be loud about it. Force the beiges to try and be different. See them give in, embarassed, when it costs more and is less fun.

Sponsored Events – because most actors/musicians/artists are colorful, then they can flaunt that, and make the beige folk feel unwelcome at their displays of artistry. Sponsorship from a prominent colorful brand should be enough, you know, like Bud Light.

Clubs and Themes and Identity and DEI – laws forbid exclusion based on race, gender, sexuality. The Beige will adjust laws so they can get around this. To go the other way, exclude the Beige, is already legal, if you are clever. You can have a private “smokers club” to get around laws regarding smoking in a bar. A gym can be only for anyone without a penis, instead of “women”. (Freebie for the Beige). You can have a school where scholarships are given to people who demonstrate a passion for queer culture, or black culture, or writing about feminist history. That is not discrimination. But nearly is.

Simply Being Us – a cinema (for example) with overtly colorful staff will scare away beiges. They don’t want to be infected. But a colorful won’t care as much going to a beige cinema, and having popcorn from a beige container. We can make them, here and there, feel like the oppressed.

Democracy – even if the federal democracy becomes one-party, there are other levels, especially in the US. States and counties can bring in new ideas like mixed-member-proportional voting, and anything else progressive.

Drugs – all psychedelics are cool, and marijuana. Own them. Flaunt them. Let MAGA do coke and oxy.

Media – presume that the authoritarian government will try to shut down consenting voices. And fight it ahead of time. That will scare them off and let the colorfuls feel empowered.

Have numerous methods of accessing the liberal media. For example, hosted in overseas territories beyond the control of your government. Launch a satellite service that bypasses terrestrial interceptions. Make it possible to 3D print receivers. Start a culture of peer-to-peer offline data sharing (basically copying thumbdrives and distributing)

Ultimately this is counter-culture and hippies, 50-60 years later, a new cycle of rebellion.

The situation as I see it:

Israel and continually gone against prior agreements and keep taking more and more Palestinian land, because they think God said it was theirs.

Palestinians rightly are angry, not just about the land but by effectively being in a prison (Gaza) and a substantial number of them have lives that hinge on absolute hate of the Israelis (the Jewish ones).

Israel don’t want a two-state solution with an enemy right next door, who will continue (with the support of Iran) to keep attacking and terrorising them. Israel (half of the population) loves the expansion into the West Bank by “settlers”.

This is what Israel will bring to the table, and a future Palestinian leadership will agree to:

West Bank continues as normal. Any land without houses is free for Israelis to build on, and the West Bank will effectively be a part of Israel, and existing Palestinians can continue to live there, as they do now.

Gaza becomes its own state. It will have full access to the outside world, via the sea and air. Land connections and workers crossing the border will continue as before. However, terrorism needs to end. An international task force will be there – potentially forever – to run democratic elections, co-ordinate aid, and to shut down any terrorism. No anti-Israeli sentiment is allowed. No murals of martyrs. All history taught in schools is carefully worded and monitored. The end result is peace and freedom with hate for their neighbours snuffed out. Any rebels are deported, somewhere.

I never write about wars. Mostly because there are so few these days, but also because they do not interest me, and I don’t have much understanding of how they work.

But for an everyday person like me, it is becoming abundantly clear that the west wants the Ukraine war to take a long time. Last week the US sent missiles that could travel twice as far as the previous ones. This week:

The PM has now ordered the defence secretary to examine ways that the UK can provide Ukraine with fighter jets.

The RAF has a limited number of aircraft it could theoretically provide Ukraine – including about 20 older Typhoon jets.

This at a time when Russia is starting to win again. Not when Russia was retreating and such gifts could have ended things. Not at the beginning of the war. It is as if they give Ukraine only enough to keep the war going, and never enough to win.

And it makes sense. A war that takes 2-3 years will keep weakening Russia in all sorts of ways – militarily and economically of course. They will be less of a threat for a decade or more, as long as they don’t get to take over all of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, despite protests of how they cannot afford it, the West loves giving their weapons industry business.

Unless Putin does something crazy, or gets toppled, or gives up, the result seems to be incredibly obvious – in a year or two Russia will have some of east Ukraine, and the war will be over. But to get there 100K+ more people need to die. Truly sickening that men playing games can do so much harm.

Presuming that Donald Trump avoids the humiliation of contending for the Republican 2024 nomination, and losing to DeSantis… what other options does Trump have?

We know that he wants to be in the limelight, and we know he likes winning, even if it is only himself who thinks it.

Meanwhile NewsMax is being sued (rightfully so) by Dominion Voting Machines.

• NewsMax settles out of court for a hefty sum, and goes bankrupt. Why? Well, they are worth more without the negative publicity of a court case, and they’ll all get rich from it somehow.
• Trump buys NewsMax and acts as if he is America’s leader with a regular time slot
• TruthSocial gains traction after people leave Twitter. It is the same as Mastodon, but “American”
• He uses NewsMax and TruthSocial to cross-promote each other
• Trump keeps on endorsing politicians, keeps using MAGA.
• A new conspiracy theory will turn up – we are overdue – and America’s right will become more splintered than ever
• DeSantis wins in 2024, because either a) Biden lingers and is way too old, b) Harris runs and is not likeable (and not male and not white), c) the infighting over who else runs causes damage and they end up with someone sub-standard
• However, enough MAGA candidates are elected to hold a balance of power, and Trump pulls their strings
• Dirt on DeSantis comes out (Trump says he has some), and there is a push to replace him with Trump

Trump will buy NewsMax, finally, and aim to rule the US in his own way, pulling strings and taking credit. And not run for POTUS again. He will stay smugly content until his final days, with his new young wife.

Around the world we have major problems with the integrity of democratic elections, almost always because those in power are maybe being dishonest or illegal in how the election is run, and how votes are counted.

While there are numerous efforts made, and international oversight, and so on, perhaps this is a new idea that is a partial remedy, yet still helpful.

Very generally, people in a local community trust each other more than they trust strangers and governments, even if the individuals disagree on politics.

At the community level we can create trust that the electoral votes in that community are counted correctly. Full transparency of the people and processes at the local level. Scrutiny available to anyone (to a degree anyway).

Then, when votes are tallied up regionally or nationally, the totals for each community is detailed. Each community can then be assured that their votes were recorded correctly, and have the ability to order a recount if they disagree.

If every community accepts that their count is correct, then the total count and election results become indisputable.

Obviously this takes a lot of organising, and will involve thousands of communities – I suggest a maximum size of 10,000 people. So, 100 communities per million.

The communities should decide what their community consists of, and (with NGO guidance) how to verify things. At no stage are individual votes ever known, at issue, or used in decision-making around the integrity.

I write a fair bit about various Universal Basic Income ideas, and we have had a lot of protests lately about pandemic lockdowns and vaccines, especially in Australia where I live.

Society is an aggregated agreement on a balance between individual needs/desires, and what is good for overall population. For example, we pay taxes so the elderly and unwell can be looked after. In terms of the pandemic, a vaccine jab helps yourself and others, as does lockdowns.

The rebels against such measures could be described as selfish – they only are about themselves, and don’t get that “we are all in this together”.

Or they could be smarter than all of us, but what I am suggesting here is a governmental solution…

All we need is the most barren land in the country, the most worthless and unwanted, and call it Anarchy state, or Anarchy district.

Make it free from all infrastructure, have no policing, no hospitals, no sanitation.

Tell people, if you don’t want to play along with society, you can leave, you can go to Anarchy.

A Universal Basic Income has a parallel idea called Universal Basic Services (you provide the services, instead of the money for the services). Money would have no use (initially) in Anarchy, and people would argue that Anarchy doesn’t have the food/water/shelter than people need. So we provide each person who goes there with a tent, shoes and clothes (they get replacements each year), and weekly drop-offs of water and the most basic of food. They won’t be paying any taxes in Anarchy, but the supplies are what they may have “earned” from being in society before now.

What is provided can be adjusted if it actually becomes appealing to anyone. But the expectation is that nobody goes there. And that’s the point – to help people understand what society provides for them, and how it is a communal effort. 

Such a concept will never work, and is perhaps dangerous, leading to a more authoritarian state (accept your lot or leave).

So it needs to be in disguise. Another modern economic idea is guaranteed work. Whenever unemployment gets too high, the government creates jobs. Maybe real, maybe not much use, but jobs.

Anarchy (probably rename it) can be a hybrid place, with minimum facilities but guaranteed work, presumably labour-intensive. Perhaps greening the deserts of Australia.

The official line is this – if you are desperate, we have some jobs in greening Australia camps, in the desert. Such operations are not profitable, so infrastructure will be limited. No cinemas, no beaches, no shops etc. Food/water/shelter will be supplied, with a wage on top, so anyone will profit from being there. But because of the limited services, and in recognition of that (that’s the key) there will be no taxes, no health mandates, no drug or alcohol laws, no child support payments, and perhaps no extradition for crimes of a certain low level.

It would need a low level of policing (again, we don’t want this place to be appealing) and healthcare.

Nobody will be forced to go there, it can only be a choice. And for some people it would be a positive change. We could throw in some training or make it some kind of Army Reserve.

But ultimately in means that people who don’t like how society is working for them, has options and recognises the downsides they embody.

Prediction: China and North Korea will join together like an ultra-mini-EU.

Citizens of each will in theory be able to move to the other country.

High end factory work will be situated in North Korea.

South Korea wants some of that business, so pushes for reconciliation with North Korea.

End result: more China.