For conversational AI, there are many contenders for winner, and probably there will be a winner who rules all, because they are all being trained on public data (the Internet).

For using AI to create images in Photoshop, or spreadsheets in Office, they already have monopolies, and those abilities will simply cement the monopolies further.

But there is a world of potential uses that need to be trained on private data, and that will help one AI business rise to the top. First mover advantage from training on private data.

Example:

In business meetings with client I often need to recall data to respond to a question. It is far better for me to know it off the top of my head, than “excuse me while I look for it”. AI can listen the conversation, and based on its learning, know which data to surface for me, and present it on my screen or AI spectacles.

That takes training. A company like Zoom could (with permission) listen in on meetings and get a head start.

Don’t be surprised if Microsoft wins. They already have Office and Teams. They already have OpenAI. And they can easily buy the companies who can access the private data for training.

Google doesn’t have the same potential for data access. Far fewer people use their platforms for meetings.

The other angle is hardware. If Apple can get their AR glasses out there en masse in businesses, those glasses can listen in (with permission) and learn.

Amazon won’t even partake, thankfully. But they will go after home automation (a talking house), but never be sufficiently innovative to own that space, and hopefully do not buy the winner.