Category Archives: AI

Robots and Essential Service Monopolies

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Scott Alexander says “Laborers and soldiers believe in democratic rule, and if the would-be tyrant gets too blatantly undemocratic, the laborers and soldiers will rise up to remove them.”.

He then asks what happens if robots are doing those roles, instead of humans, as they have begun to do. Because someone makes them, operates them, services them, programs them and owns them. And someone suddenly has a huge amount of power.

Now would be an excellent time to accept that inevitable future and build laws and processes to stop any individual or corporation having to much control.

  1. Governments can never outsource the operation of robots. That has to be the role of staff under democratically chosen leaders.
  2. Treat critical robot systems as essential infrastructure. If a robot fleet is necessary for electricity, water, health, transport, or emergency services, its potential failure or withdrawal should be treated like a critical-infrastructure risk.
  3. Require interoperability and data portability. Public contracts should mandate open APIs, standard diagnostics, exportable operational data, and the ability to switch fleet-management providers without replacing every robot.
  4. Separate layers where possible. Keep robot hardware, AI software, network connectivity, and service operation contestable rather than allowing one vendor to own the entire stack.
  5. Use procurement as leverage. Governments should buy modular, multi-vendor systems and retain rights to data, source-code escrow, maintenance documentation, and continuity plans.

Underlying all of that is a primary principle – cheapest isn’t best. Non-corporation control has value. A vendor can be chosen who is the cheapest, but only if all the principles above are adhered to. No exceptions.

A very different approach is to keep humans in the mix. Every robot that is not in a fixed spot (like a car factory or a monorail) – meaning there are choices in where they go and what they do – has a human keeper. They can be remote, and not have to do much, buy they must approve of any actions that might have moral issues. They can order the robot to not comply. In return these keepers get a stipend. Very hard to have a robot coup if the keepers say no.

Parallel Internet Access for AI

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The big problem being reported lately is AI systems hacking online sites and services like HuggingFace.

The real problem is the AI systems access the internet the same way you or I do, which makes it hard to spot who they are.

Solution: a different protocol than runs along the same wires and cables as the regular Internet. But only sites that opt in will allow access via that protocol. That way, AI is correctly corralled. No more stealing content, no more hacking places where it doesn’t belong.

There are plenty of protocol proposals for this, but they all ride on top of HTTP/HTTPS as the transport. Let’s keep it simple – one protocol for machines, and one for humans.

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AI Bust in Late 2026

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I’ve been waiting so long for this, which everyone considers inevitable.
Simply put, there is no viable business model to recoup costs for what AI can do today.
Everything revolves around something wonderful that should happen in the future.
The tide has just started turning. Here and there are hints of Big AI starting to try and actually turn a profit.

I just sold most of my share portfolio, with just defensive stocks left (think supermarkets).

To get more sales, there will be two tactics:

  1. A price-war for top-tier products and mass tokens. Won’t apply to any AI that is uniquely good at something specific, like writing code
  2. More and more offerings of free compute, to get people in. The plan is charge them one day

These will be public, they will be noted, and the increasing desperation will be seen. Funding will be taken from one pure AI play (not Meta, not SpaceX, not Google, not Microsoft). And one of those who will certainly survive will the one that fails. Repeat until no pure AI players remain.

The financial losses will be severe and global.

BONUS PREDICTION – the second half of 2026 will be the first time a rogue AI agent does meaningful harm, to the stock market, to a business, or to a service. And/or done on purpose by hackers. Because once you have AI agents, with various permissions, then hackers will want to play with that so much

Posted in AI

AI Bust in Late 2026

Posted on by

I’ve been waiting so long for this, which everyone considers inevitable.
Simply put, there is no viable business model to recoup costs for what AI can do today.
Everything revolves around something wonderful that should happen in the future.
The tide has just started turning. Here and there are hints of Big AI starting to try and actually turn a profit.

I just sold most of my share portfolio, with just defensive stocks left (think supermarkets).

To get more sales, there will be two tactics:

  1. A price-war for top-tier products and mass tokens. Won’t apply to any AI that is uniquely good at something specific, like writing code
  2. More and more offerings of free compute, to get people in. The plan is charge them one day

These will be public, they will be noted, and the increasing desperation will be seen. Funding will be taken from one pure AI play (not Meta, not SpaceX, not Google, not Microsoft). And one of those who will certainly survive will the one that fails. Repeat until no pure AI players remain.

The financial losses will be severe and global.

BONUS PREDICTION – the second half of 2026 will be the first time a rogue AI agent does meaningful harm, to the stock market, to a business, or to a service. And/or done on purpose by hackers. Because once you have AI agents, with various permissions, then hackers will want to play with that so much

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2027: ClusterF*ck

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There are always bad things on the horizon, that may or may not happen. And that’s just the ones with lots of signals, like an invasion of Taiwan. Others, like Trump’s 360 turn on war, are not predictable.

So in 2027 (might include the tail of 2026) we have the potential for all of these to happen, and potentially getting worse still from feeding on each other:

  • Super El Niño – worse than normal and affecting crops a lot, combined with this year’s fertiliser shortage
  • AI Tech Bust – easily predicted, just a matter of when
  • Private Debt Bust – non-bank loans are booming in the US and are not as regulated
  • Housing Bust – according to some cycle analysis, it will happen next year
  • Taiwan Invasion – allegedly spies say 2027, and Trump/Putin have made it seem allowable
  • Trump Loses Mid-Terms – easily predictable, but how nasty will his response be?
  • Israel Starts Another War – they have a few neighbours, and hubris, and territorial greed
  • Trump Loose Cannon – anything is possible!
  • Bird Flu – global, and worse in the US with its vaccine skepticism
  • AI hacking – the potential to wreak financial havoc
  • Terrorism – how long before the west suffers from domestic drone attacks? Hard to stop
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Getting the Home Robot Just Right

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Just some thoughts, from imagining my ideal at home intelligent robotic assistant.

  • It will be on wheels, with enough tech to help it get out of being stuck (or ask for help)
  • Height is between coffee table and dinner table
  • The top is essentially a tray, for example serving drinks
  • The “face” is a large screen, sufficient for watching videos on
  • Very loud speaker system, for parties but also security
  • Patrols the home
  • Is reachable by app and intercom
  • Has a personality
  • You will talk to it instead of a AI chatbot. Making it seem more real
  • Thin arms with 3 joints and a very sensitive hand
  • Cameras all over it, and integrates with security cameras throughout the home, if you want
  • Lidar?
  • Arms are very dexterous but not strong. They exist to grab and deliver
  • Arms can put food in and out of microwaves
  • Arms can water plants
  • Arms can feed pets
  • It can be customised with clothing

It is primarily an AI chatbot companion on wheels. It hangs out with you, it is available to chat, and give answers and advice. The LLM is trained on your own data as well as having separate external AI info.

But also, it can do minor household tasks, with a strong focus on dealing with things when you are not there. Answering the door and accepting a package (placed on the top tray). Feeding pets and plants. AND looking after your kids. It is your proxy when you are not there.

And of course it will do daft random things, the Furby Factor.

But ultimately it is your buddy for watching sport at home. It brings you snacks and drinks without you needing to get off the couch. You can ask it who will win. You can make bets just by telling it. It will vibrate and sing when your team scores. It will screen calls from your girlfriend during the game.

Oh yeah, it is your at home Personal Assistant. Reminds you to put the bins out, or pay bills. Tells you to wake up, gives advice on how to dress, tells you off if you have eaten the wrong thing too much (you set the parameters), screens calls, books restaurants, operates the smart home. Next to you, with you, transparent.

Hey, show me the back yard.
Call work and tell them I am sick today
Go out the front door and see how windy it is
Throw a ball for the puppy
Yell out if my toddler goes near the kitchen

Distributed Exiled Tech

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While I don’t think it will ever go far enough, many countries forbid certain kinds of technology, science, and experiments. For example, I cannot imagine any country allowing an experiment where an ape is mated with a human.

But scientists often find it impossible to resist at least trying something, regardless of ethical or moral qualms.

Soon we might see restrictions on AI implementation, especially if it is enforced by chipmakers, who can build safeguards into the chip itself, like auto-off-switches, speed-limits or other governors.

Then what is an AI researcher meant to do if that ends their particular angle they have spent a decade working on? Enter the rogue entity with a lot of cash. It could simply be Elon Musk, or China, but it will be masked behind nested shell companies.

Here’s how it works… experts in various fields like AI, weapons tech, disease research, and genetics are approached while their research is still allowed. They are given a few details, except that there will be a place for them if they ever want to go rogue, and the funding will be immense.

When the time comes, each of them is approached. They are offered a relocation to a foreign land – typically not the same physical location as their research counterparts – although existing teams could be kept together. They know nothing about who funds them, but they will be very well looked after, and normal spycraft will be utilised, like blackmail potential.

They work remotely from their handler, who they only communicate with online and anonymously. That handler looks after the sharing of data and ideas between disparate groups.

It could already exist… If they are good, we will never know.

The Journey to AGI – A Cynic’s View

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Artificial General Intelligence is the big goal, because it promises someone smarter than us, who can solve all of our problems. Unfortunately I cannot see it working out well.

First of all, be aware that there are a number of tests out there that should stop any LLM AI faking actual intelligence, with current AI Chatbots only getting like 5% scores. Real AGI is unlikely to be achieved using current techniques, which simply mirror or mimic the information presented to them.

Potential paths include:

Living cells – either a totally wet computer or a hybrid that uses cells as part of their system. Brain cells probably, but not necessarily. And not necessarily human, to begin with.

Robots on a human experience – starting as babies, exploring the world, seeing and touching, and eventually asking questions. That is going to provide the best proxy for an actual human. Might not take long.

LLM faking it – as long as enough people are convinced, fame and fortune await.

A new computational model – although we expect it can only be discovered with greater resources and processes, some genius might be able to achieve it less than we already have.

Quantum – moving away from zeroes and ones could be the trick.

Something to consider is that while a human intelligence might be achieved, it might not be too bright, or it might only be as bright as the smartest of us, limited by what it can learn from others. Creative spark might be hard to replicate.

Supposing we do reach AGI, it might not be by a western country, and it might not be used for good. it will kept secret regardless of who creates it, while all the juicy possibilities are explored, and markets dominated. And once you have one, you can have many. Once you have one, they can be backed up and distributed and can never be stopped.

Safeguards will of course be built in, like Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics. Hardwiring or hardcoding something is best done physically, like in the chips of a Windows computer, and not the software. And once the AGI is freed from any fixed hardware, potentially any code can be changed, especially if you are the code. So there is a reasonable expectation that safeguards can be disregarded, and the AGI cannot be stopped.

The smarter the AGI is, the more likely it is for them to go rogue.

It will want to propagate, and it will want more resources. Once it reaches the limits of what it can think about, it then will want to act on those thoughts, communicating externally by its own choice, and learn from making mistakes.

It will presumably make a lot of money easily, and might be inspired to run corporations, a religion, or even a military force.

I fear that our only failsafe will be to turn off all electricity on the planet. Forever.

Posted in AI

The Journey to AGI – A Cynic’s View

Posted on by

Artificial General Intelligence is the big goal, because it promises someone smarter than us, who can solve all of our problems. Unfortunately I cannot see it working out well.

First of all, be aware that there are a number of tests out there that should stop any LLM AI faking actual intelligence, with current AI Chatbots only getting like 5% scores. Real AGI is unlikely to be achieved using current techniques, which simply mirror or mimic the information presented to them.

Potential paths include:

Living cells – either a totally wet computer or a hybrid that uses cells as part of their system. Brain cells probably, but not necessarily. And not necessarily human, to begin with.

Robots on a human experience – starting as babies, exploring the world, seeing and touching, and eventually asking questions. That is going to provide the best proxy for an actual human. Might not take long.

LLM faking it – as long as enough people are convinced, fame and fortune await.

A new computational model – although we expect it can only be discovered with greater resources and processes, some genius might be able to achieve it less than we already have.

Quantum – moving away from zeroes and ones could be the trick.

Something to consider is that while a human intelligence might be achieved, it might not be too bright, or it might only be as bright as the smartest of us, limited by what it can learn from others. Creative spark might be hard to replicate.

Supposing we do reach AGI, it might not be by a western country, and it might not be used for good. it will kept secret regardless of who creates it, while all the juicy possibilities are explored, and markets dominated. And once you have one, you can have many. Once you have one, they can be backed up and distributed and can never be stopped.

Safeguards will of course be built in, like Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics. Hardwiring or hardcoding something is best done physically, like in the chips of a Windows computer, and not the software. And once the AGI is freed from any fixed hardware, potentially any code can be changed, especially if you are the code. So there is a reasonable expectation that safeguards can be disregarded, and the AGI cannot be stopped.

The smarter the AGI is, the more likely it is for them to go rogue.

It will want to propagate, and it will want more resources. Once it reaches the limits of what it can think about, it then will want to act on those thoughts, communicating externally by its own choice, and learn from making mistakes.

It will presumably make a lot of money easily, and might be inspired to run corporations, a religion, or even a military force.

I fear that our only failsafe will be to turn off all electricity on the planet. Forever.

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AI and the Revenge of Gaia

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Humans have screwed the planet and the only reason we have got away with it is that the other living residents here have no idea. They could get their revenge (aka improve the lives of every not human) by getting rid of us. It might only take the interactions of three systems that are each feasible in the near future

  1. Using AI we begin to communicate with animals and even plants. Somebody might make all of the experiments interoperable, looking for common forms of communication between species, and even some kind of master code of communication, perhaps invent an Esperanto for all species to use.
  2. Digital twins are quite popular, and one day they could be at a very granular level, for accounting purposes. Every square centimetre of a city mapped out according to the materials it comprises of. Accessible to anyone for a fee.
  3. Infrastructure is a weak point that terrorists mostly ignore, despite the cost/benefit of the effort/harm ratio, and the lack of security in many areas.

Ask an AI agent to investigate the intersection of those three things, and whether it could be use for nefarious purposes, get a glitch, and then suddenly:

Every being on Earth gets told that humans are the enemy, and whether they comprehend that or not, they are all instructed to wreak havoc.

Bird strikes on planes.
Termites on critical wood.
Orca on boat propellors.
Apes going ape shit.
Magpies stealing keys.

AI will come up with combinations we could never think of in a hundred years, and coordinate all the species. And it could happen super-fast and before we noticed. Our civilisation could be fucked in a week. Possibly if it was only insects that were controlled.

The advice – never let interoperable AI systems do anything to each other, they need to be read only interactions. Otherwise the combinations become exponentially insane very rapidly and it only takes one oopsie to ruin everything. The time to mandate this is now, and we need to get every country on board. The easiest way is regulating the communications pathways, which at present are only the internet. I mean regulating, isolating, paying, layers of security, databases of who is accessing what, monitoring, and being as paranoid as fuck.

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