Author Archives: Futures Broker

Free Help You Buy

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This is a variation on an idea I once presented to the CEO of Dell Computers, twice.

Scenario – you want a iPhone 7 cover with purple flowers, delivered within a week.

You – search for 10 minutes, get frustrated, give up.

We – search on your behalf, provide recommendations, no charge.

Business model

We provide the best solution, not the best price.

We provide links to preferred suppliers.

There is no obligation to buy – you can look elsewhere for the same product.

We receive commissions from businesses that offer commissions. This influences where we recommend you buy from, but not the product/solution we recommend.

We are upfront about out business model.

We publish the ratio of solutions we do not benefit from.

Employees are global, cheap, and paid per solution, with a share of any commissions.

Advantages

First mover advantage.

Scales well – all solutions stored in a database, to make it easier next time.

Solutions can be published online.

Because we cater for all categories, we can bid (Google Ads) on only high intent keywords, like +buy+ delivery

 

 

 

Intentional Communities for Defeated Ideas

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As long as populations keep growing (they won’t for long, see Unism – global population decline starting 2050), we could make entire suburbs that are put aside for groups of people with the same ideals, beliefs or delusions.

Any time a group, who have opinions different to what the majority of the country believe, have 500 people who will live with each other, they can apply to get their own suburb.

Once approved – governments will rule out various things like terrorism, cannibalism, not paying taxes – that community will be able to live, within their boundary, free to break a particular law:

  • No 5G
  • No drug laws
  • No religious discrimination laws

And maybe, perhaps, controversial…

  • No incest laws
  • No polygamy laws

The commonality is that these are opinions, not necessarily wrong, but not commonly accepted. I am 500% percent for gay marriage, but I can understand why fundamentalist Christians might disagree.

5G is easy, providers simply won’t service that area. Drugs are harder but doable, they will need to manufacture/grow them within the boundary.

The point: when you get idiots protesting/rioting about 5G causing COVID-19, tell them to go live in their own suburb, if it is that important to them.

 

Augmented Reality: Location Ownership

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When people are wandering around with AR glasses, there will be an app, a system, that serves up the AR content. But the content will necessarily mostly be supplied.

AR is by definition location based. So who gets to supply information about a particular place? There will be three models:

Ownership – as used by Google now for Google Maps / Google My Business, you can claim a business by having a postcard with a code sent to the address. This works well, and the best systems will use this, and/or something more comprehensive. Still, it only works for locations that are owned… doesn’t work for beach

Frequency – typically a person who is in a location the most, is the resident, the worker, or the person who is there the most (like a spot on the beach). This can be done more quickly and cheaper than ownership.

Who Pays Wins – in Google search, advertisers can bid on keywords that are the brand name of a competitor. Typically it doesn’t work well, because that searcher wants the competitor, not you.

Likewise, a location can be made available to the highest bidder. Not for factual info, but for promotional purposes. Yes, there will be an app that puts a billboard on the side of your house.

 

Reducing Conspiracy Theories with Truth Panels

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As we have seen with 5G and COVID, conspiracy theories are running rampant in society, and now they are directly causing vandalism, civil disobedience, a few murders and making it much harder to stem the pandemic.

  • We can’t stop social media
  • We can’t remove freedom of speech
  • Conspiracy folk don’t trust/believe what governments say

It will most likely get worse. In a nutshell, people who lack importance, usefulness or acknowledgement in their lives have found something where they can feel correct and important, no matter how crazy that thing may be.

It doesn’t help that, while decades ago research meant hours in a library, today it means I saw some random YouTube video…

We have fact checkers out there… but they don’t change the minds of those who spread rumours and lies. Those people will say you can’t trust Mainstream Media (thanks, Trump, you selfish idiot) and that Snopes is owned by [insert evil billionaire here].

Truth Panel

Find a selection of people, from all walks of life and demographics, who aren’t stupid. The more the merrier – 100 would be perfect, good for percentages.

The initial panel will be decided by 5 founding panel members who are behind the idea – these need to be highly-respected people! After the first year, nominations and online votes can be made in the future to decide who is on the panel.

They cannot be

  • politicians or have any political allegiance beyond simple membership
  • business people, unless they only operate in one clearly defined industry
  • influenced by another country
  • closely related to, or connected with, the above

Ideally they are well-respected in the community, the sorts of people who get honours from the Queen. Many should be actors, musicians or sports people. There needs to be good amounts of medical and scientific and education people. Surgeons, inventors and professors.

They are unpaid.

For the most worrisome conspiracy theories, so perhaps just 2-3 per years, the panel convenes to receive submissions. Anyone in the country is encouraged to submit, and this needs to be well publicised. However there must be barriers, so that effort is required. All claims made in a submission need references (they can refer to any source, even YouTube, but must have a reference). Submissions cannot be anonymous. The panel might have questions for those who make submissions.

After reading submissions, attending debates, and having meetings, the panel will make a conclusion. Typically it would be like this:

82% say the claim is false
8% say it is false, except for some aspect
5% say it is true except for some aspect
3% had a conflict of interest and could not participate
2% say the claim is true

Each panel member writes a paragraph or two in their own words to sum up their findings.

Funding

Funding should be from the government, mainstream media, business councils, unions – anyone who can add some cash. It doesn’t matter who it is, because the panel are unpaid. We just need a broad mix of funding from across society.

Publicity

Unions, charities, political movements can all publicise directly to their members at no cost. MSM can provide some free advertising. State broadcasters can host debates.

Why it will work

Anywhere rumours and lies are spread, they can be countered by a mention of or link to the Truth Panel decision. The panel is, by design, hard to deny. People won’t be able to find reasons for not trusting them. It will be an easy way to shut people up.

Note: countering rumours was important during World War 2

The Best Solution to Pandemics (in hindsight)

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After decades of planning for the next pandemic, it appears it was just the maths of it we worked out, not the practical response. In hindsight here’s my opinion of how to plan for the next virus:

  • National authority – having cities and states with their own rules does not help. One national body should have overarching control over every aspect of the response
  • Trained and monitored people in crucial situations – where infection is more likely – travellers, quarantine, hospitals, care homes & industries like abattoirs – providing leaflets is not enough. Repeated on the spot training and 24/7 monitoring is essential. Dollars spent here can save thousands for the economy
  • Close borders early – every country would have, if they could turn back time, closed borders sooner. The #1 best response is to not let the virus in. That means accepting that sometimes jumping the gun hurts the economy for no reason.
  • Fewer lockdown stages – from day one, make masks, social distancing, and no crowds, mandatory. Stage two is the most extreme, where you stay at home except for when it is essential. Harsher lock downs, sooner
  • Dedicated quarantine centres – we have them in Australia for pets and racehorses, we can make them for people. Remove the ability for the virus to escape quarantine
  • Enforced isolation – in Australia, 50% of people who were told to self-isolate still left their homes. All self-isolation must be strictly monitored, ideally with ankle bracelets or a phone app that uses location
  • Concierge – people in self-isolation need zero excuses to break the rules. So give them a hotline to a concierge who will coordinate all their heath and supplies, for free. Even give people a free Uber Eats account. Make them feel like they are treated well for the inconvenience.
  • Reward, not punish – if someone tests positive, there are things they need to do, like self-isolate and not have visitors. They will often not be able to work. Reward them – like giving everyone who tests positive $500, on top of any other welfare payments. Obviously it can’t be high enough that people choose to catch it!
  • No limits on testing – if the system can’t cope, improve the system. In an ideal world, everyone gets tested in the first week. Like the entire city or country.
  • Natural boundaries – when one location has an outbreak and locks down, make the location a natural one, not an administrative one.
  • Money matters not – federal governments can print more money. Not a single decision should be based on money.
  • Prison for people who spread misinformation – no bail. Lock them up. Be harsh.
  • All interest, repayments and rent on hold – for anybody who has to close their business or cannot work.

Specialised Business Clusters Post-COVID

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We already have clusters of like-minded businesses, but most of them are just tech, following the lead of Silicon Valley.

The trend recently is for smaller cities to get more start-ups, due to lower costs and perhaps local government incentives.

COVID-19 will mean less business travel, because of the prolonged nature of the pandemic forcing us to get used to connecting remotely.

At the same time, people are using Uber/bikes/scooters more than ever before, but not to the other end of a city.

We will still want face-to-face meetings, we just won’t put as much effort into the travel as we used to.

Prediction: like-minded industries, and subsets of those industries, will over the next 10 years congregate in suburbs of specific cities. Imagine half of a country’s FinTech businesses not only being in the same city, but the same suburb.

  • Easier to change who you work for – interviews, no need to move home, already socialise with them
  • Socialising (or living) with people in your industry
  • Industry-specific co-working spaces
  • Scale efficiency for supporting businesses
  • Industry-specific training and schools

 

Conspiracies and Protests will be Controlled

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It should be obvious to anyone that misinformation, and civil disobedience are on the rise. We have store employees being murdered for asking someone to wear a mask, and 5G towers set on fire, for example. We also have had some large public protests and rebellious gatherings during a pandemic when people should be social distancing.

We also have an epidemic of falsehoods and half-truths on social media, even from world leaders (well, mostly Trump).

I think the reason for this is reasonably easy to explain… Never before have we had a combination of people with meaningless existences, media highlighting the “successes” of others, and platforms where anybody can be seen and heard globally. Given the opportunity to have a contrary viewpoint, on topics that could affect personal freedoms and/or health, makes these people feel empowered and special. So blame society, generally, for having members who need that.

There is nothing to suggest that this trend will go any way except for worse. More misinformation, spread more widely, believed by more people, and leading to greater levels of rebellion.

For the social media side, the answer is already happening – greater moderation. However another response will also happen before long – no more anonymity on certain channels. Expect Facebook to require account verification, so they know who you are. Maybe requiring an ID check.

For public rebellion in real life, unfortunately I think that on some issues, governments are going to outlaw any actions derived from misinformation. For example, the government will declare that 5G is safe, and anybody committing a crime in reaction to untruths about 5G will be penalised harshly.

That means vandalising, unlawful assembly, being arrested at a protest, selling products – anything besides simple freedom of speech – will be punished more heavily than normal if associated with a banned topic.

For own good, I think the governments will choose to be more authoritarian, or else face anarchy from sectors of the public.

The Wall & The Mini Wall

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I think most futurists expect this to happen, and my only contribution is that I think it will happen very soon.

  • We will have transitioned from smart speakers to smart speakers with little screens
  • We have transitioned from cable and free-to-air TV / online videos to watching all of our video content on TV, operated by a separate device
  • Operating out home via a hub
  • Voice control

We all know what we want: a wall that is a giant TV, that is voice operated, and connects to everything. The wall can show any video from any service, play music, display our calendar, show the news and weather, look like wallpaper or show our photos, and operate our home.

All the components already exist, and are reasonably mature. And the winner in this space will either be by Google/Apple/Amazon or will license their technology.

All the components already exist, with the exception of the screen. A wall of screens isn’t the perfect look (so Apple won’t do it), and what we are waiting for is an affordable wall that can be custom ordered to fit all of any wall.

But wait!

The Mini Wall is where we will start. It does everything described above, but it comes in three versions:

  1. Bathroom mirror, non-misting
  2. Full-length mirror
  3. Wide-screen TV

One of those will catch the imagination of the public. What is great about the full-length mirror, suddenly now, is being able to do group exercise from home. You can see the other people exercising, and your mirror image, on the screen.

Home Gym / Telemedicine

The pandemic has led to greater adoption of home gym classes, and telemedicine. Both can be provided via a full length mirror, especially if it can be a conduit for biometric data. For telemedicine a high resolution directional camera would be very important. For example, if I have a rash on my back and I want the doctor to see it.

Many services are already here that could utilise such a mirror. These could be partners with, or duplicated by, or bought out by, the mirror maker if it is a Big Tech company.

Examples:

From quick check-ins to group sessions, Krew provides a platform for PTs, physiotherapists and nutritionists to offer all of their services online. We complement the main livestream with motion tracking, heart rate detection from video, and exercise/meal plans – but is it browser based and uses laptop/phone cameras


Lululemon announced  last month it would spend $500 million to acquire Mirror, which sells a $1,495 reflective display so subscribers can exercise while simultaneously streaming workouts and watching themselves. And your biometric data appears on the screen. So much more can be done with this screen!

Meanwhile the OYO Nova Gym is a very small replacement for numerous resistance machines found in gyms.

Combine the three above products with telemedicine, and that is all of health covered.

The Winner

It’s a tough call, but I think Google will win this one. Apple is too cautious, Amazon doesn’t have tools like calendars, and Google is willing to work with other brands, already have a screen-based OS with Android, and are buying Fitbit.

Bonus TikTok Feature!

We will tend to do our workouts in a different part of our home to where we relax and watch TV, and to combine the two would require the screen to rotate.

I don’t see this product being a replacement for TVs. I do see a complementary TV product that uses the same OS but has different primary functions.

But the vertical orientation does suit watching phone-based apps like TikTok, and given that dancing is a huge part of TikTok… Imagine kids in the garage doing their favorite TikTok dances with friends live on the screen… Google probably wouldn’t even need TikTok’s permission to embed the videos in the mirror.

Find/Found – A Fun Dating App?

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With this app, there are very few settings. You can choose the demographics of the type of person you seek. And you allow Location.

Oh, and you choose if you want to find someone, or be found.

To be found, just turn on the app whenever you wish.

To find, turn on the app, it has a map. No, it doesn’t. It gives you two numbers – the total of people in your chosen demographic who wish to be found, who are within 1,000 metres, and 50 metres.

That’s it. You won’t know who they are or precisely where they are. If it is a crowded 50 metres, it could be anyone. If it is a forest, it might be just that one person over there.

Purpose: facilitates and adds mystery and adventure
Price: zero

Product Participation

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  • We have RFID tracking for products
  • We can track each step of production (origin of ingredients) and distribution
  • We have crowd-funding

What if we crowd-funded ethical ingredients instead of finished products.

Imagine an alliance of certified eco-friendly palm oil. Consumers sponsored their efforts monetarily, or give them a digital blessing.

When you buy a food item at the supermarket, you can scan the RFID chip with your phone to see if any ingredients have been supported by you, and to which degree.