Author Archives: Futures Broker

The Rights of Stupid People

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Rightfully so, many formerly marginalised and discriminated against people now have laws and movements to give them equality. Most prominent in recent times has been support for the rights of gay and transgendered people.

Along with such progresses has been laws and/or public shame addresses words that can be used in hateful ways. I don’t need to mention them, you know the words you cannot and should not say.

One that was common when I was a kid, and is totally forbidden today, is retard – even though that word became a common way of not saying offensive words like “moron”, “idiot”, “cretin” and “imbecile”.

Now we are meant to say disabled, or some version of that. Which is all fine, I’m disputing this at all. I am a futurist, and so I am wondering what happens next.

Intelligence is a spectrum, and it is a luck of the draw (plus genetics) that decides where each of us are on that spectrum, from genius to mentally disabled.

I think next up will be the removal of the word stupid. And the word crazy. Both are used casually to describe not just people but also situations and activities. That was a stupid decision, based on a crazy idea. When stupid or crazy people hear such words, even when not directed at them, it is hurtful.

Instead we will say that was an unwise decision, based on a misguided idea.

Expect this before 2030, and happening this or next year wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Internet Nomads on Friendly Farms

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(In/Off)

Simple concept that could take off.

WWOOF has been around for decades, where you work for a few hours each day on an organic farm, in exchange for food and somewhere to sleep.

Less strict about organic/farms are HelpX and workaway.info.

None are specifically for internet professionals, and listings merely state if the Internet is available. In many rural locations the speed might be very slow. Also, a professional would prefer a quiet spot, with a desk and accessories like printers and large monitors.

A network that guarantees support for digital nomads can get a work/life balance that includes fresh air and nature.

Setting it up isn’t hard, simply a free directory where hosts detail the Internet capabilities that have. Maybe even set up a charity that helps them get the necessary gear.

Restraining Order Attack Support Team

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Restraining Order Attack Support Team (ROAST)

  • Neighbourhood Watch is a very generalised community effort to deter crime
  • Restraining Orders don’t work very well went the bad guy decides to break the rules. They are typically gone or have done harm before the police are informed or arrive.
  • There are too many people who are fearing for their lives for the police to actively protect

We can combine the above to create a community-based response to potential violations of restraining orders. A hyper-focused mission to protect those who are scared of a particular individual, and vulnerable.

Here’s how it works:

Only for people where a restraining order is in place, and there is an indication things could turn bad. So not when the bad guy is living in another state and has made no contact.

Community members who live nearby have an app. The frightened person can trigger an alarm and everyone gets the alert.

Temporary, borrowed security measures can be put in place – cameras and door/window alarms. These could also be connected to the app.

The community would be supplied with photos and car details of the bad guy. Where legal, license plate readers could be set up on that street.

The bad guy is informed that the frightened person is protected, and where legal could even show a photo of community members with their weapons.

Podcast / Navigation

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People listen to podcasts while driving.

People use navigation apps while driving.

Combine them. The voice of the podcast interrupts the podcast to announce you need to make a turn. Casually, conversationally, like a passenger who knows the way and was telling you a story.

Unlikely to happen if the podcaster needs to record all the navigational words.

Can easily happen if that voice can be synthesised.

Receptionist / Security Guard

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Problems to solve:

  • Security is expensive
  • Many receptionists are bored
  • Security guards gets bored

Solution – for video security:

Bored people, like some receptionists, or someone on the train, get to watch security cameras for a short time, say 30 seconds on average, but you never know how long.

There are buttons they can push at the end of the viewing – nothing happened, maybe suspicious or alert. You have just a moment to click on one, it proves you were paying attention.

The same security feed gets seen by multiple people, and if two or more click an alert button, it is considered genuine.

In-between videos there are tasks to perform like Mechanical Turk. That keeps people awake and focussed.

Paid by the minute. Stop start whenever you want.

Free Help You Buy

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This is a variation on an idea I once presented to the CEO of Dell Computers, twice.

Scenario – you want a iPhone 7 cover with purple flowers, delivered within a week.

You – search for 10 minutes, get frustrated, give up.

We – search on your behalf, provide recommendations, no charge.

Business model

We provide the best solution, not the best price.

We provide links to preferred suppliers.

There is no obligation to buy – you can look elsewhere for the same product.

We receive commissions from businesses that offer commissions. This influences where we recommend you buy from, but not the product/solution we recommend.

We are upfront about out business model.

We publish the ratio of solutions we do not benefit from.

Employees are global, cheap, and paid per solution, with a share of any commissions.

Advantages

First mover advantage.

Scales well – all solutions stored in a database, to make it easier next time.

Solutions can be published online.

Because we cater for all categories, we can bid (Google Ads) on only high intent keywords, like +buy+ delivery

 

 

 

Intentional Communities for Defeated Ideas

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As long as populations keep growing (they won’t for long, see Unism – global population decline starting 2050), we could make entire suburbs that are put aside for groups of people with the same ideals, beliefs or delusions.

Any time a group, who have opinions different to what the majority of the country believe, have 500 people who will live with each other, they can apply to get their own suburb.

Once approved – governments will rule out various things like terrorism, cannibalism, not paying taxes – that community will be able to live, within their boundary, free to break a particular law:

  • No 5G
  • No drug laws
  • No religious discrimination laws

And maybe, perhaps, controversial…

  • No incest laws
  • No polygamy laws

The commonality is that these are opinions, not necessarily wrong, but not commonly accepted. I am 500% percent for gay marriage, but I can understand why fundamentalist Christians might disagree.

5G is easy, providers simply won’t service that area. Drugs are harder but doable, they will need to manufacture/grow them within the boundary.

The point: when you get idiots protesting/rioting about 5G causing COVID-19, tell them to go live in their own suburb, if it is that important to them.

 

Augmented Reality: Location Ownership

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When people are wandering around with AR glasses, there will be an app, a system, that serves up the AR content. But the content will necessarily mostly be supplied.

AR is by definition location based. So who gets to supply information about a particular place? There will be three models:

Ownership – as used by Google now for Google Maps / Google My Business, you can claim a business by having a postcard with a code sent to the address. This works well, and the best systems will use this, and/or something more comprehensive. Still, it only works for locations that are owned… doesn’t work for beach

Frequency – typically a person who is in a location the most, is the resident, the worker, or the person who is there the most (like a spot on the beach). This can be done more quickly and cheaper than ownership.

Who Pays Wins – in Google search, advertisers can bid on keywords that are the brand name of a competitor. Typically it doesn’t work well, because that searcher wants the competitor, not you.

Likewise, a location can be made available to the highest bidder. Not for factual info, but for promotional purposes. Yes, there will be an app that puts a billboard on the side of your house.

 

Reducing Conspiracy Theories with Truth Panels

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As we have seen with 5G and COVID, conspiracy theories are running rampant in society, and now they are directly causing vandalism, civil disobedience, a few murders and making it much harder to stem the pandemic.

  • We can’t stop social media
  • We can’t remove freedom of speech
  • Conspiracy folk don’t trust/believe what governments say

It will most likely get worse. In a nutshell, people who lack importance, usefulness or acknowledgement in their lives have found something where they can feel correct and important, no matter how crazy that thing may be.

It doesn’t help that, while decades ago research meant hours in a library, today it means I saw some random YouTube video…

We have fact checkers out there… but they don’t change the minds of those who spread rumours and lies. Those people will say you can’t trust Mainstream Media (thanks, Trump, you selfish idiot) and that Snopes is owned by [insert evil billionaire here].

Truth Panel

Find a selection of people, from all walks of life and demographics, who aren’t stupid. The more the merrier – 100 would be perfect, good for percentages.

The initial panel will be decided by 5 founding panel members who are behind the idea – these need to be highly-respected people! After the first year, nominations and online votes can be made in the future to decide who is on the panel.

They cannot be

  • politicians or have any political allegiance beyond simple membership
  • business people, unless they only operate in one clearly defined industry
  • influenced by another country
  • closely related to, or connected with, the above

Ideally they are well-respected in the community, the sorts of people who get honours from the Queen. Many should be actors, musicians or sports people. There needs to be good amounts of medical and scientific and education people. Surgeons, inventors and professors.

They are unpaid.

For the most worrisome conspiracy theories, so perhaps just 2-3 per years, the panel convenes to receive submissions. Anyone in the country is encouraged to submit, and this needs to be well publicised. However there must be barriers, so that effort is required. All claims made in a submission need references (they can refer to any source, even YouTube, but must have a reference). Submissions cannot be anonymous. The panel might have questions for those who make submissions.

After reading submissions, attending debates, and having meetings, the panel will make a conclusion. Typically it would be like this:

82% say the claim is false
8% say it is false, except for some aspect
5% say it is true except for some aspect
3% had a conflict of interest and could not participate
2% say the claim is true

Each panel member writes a paragraph or two in their own words to sum up their findings.

Funding

Funding should be from the government, mainstream media, business councils, unions – anyone who can add some cash. It doesn’t matter who it is, because the panel are unpaid. We just need a broad mix of funding from across society.

Publicity

Unions, charities, political movements can all publicise directly to their members at no cost. MSM can provide some free advertising. State broadcasters can host debates.

Why it will work

Anywhere rumours and lies are spread, they can be countered by a mention of or link to the Truth Panel decision. The panel is, by design, hard to deny. People won’t be able to find reasons for not trusting them. It will be an easy way to shut people up.

Note: countering rumours was important during World War 2

The Best Solution to Pandemics (in hindsight)

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After decades of planning for the next pandemic, it appears it was just the maths of it we worked out, not the practical response. In hindsight here’s my opinion of how to plan for the next virus:

  • National authority – having cities and states with their own rules does not help. One national body should have overarching control over every aspect of the response
  • Trained and monitored people in crucial situations – where infection is more likely – travellers, quarantine, hospitals, care homes & industries like abattoirs – providing leaflets is not enough. Repeated on the spot training and 24/7 monitoring is essential. Dollars spent here can save thousands for the economy
  • Close borders early – every country would have, if they could turn back time, closed borders sooner. The #1 best response is to not let the virus in. That means accepting that sometimes jumping the gun hurts the economy for no reason.
  • Fewer lockdown stages – from day one, make masks, social distancing, and no crowds, mandatory. Stage two is the most extreme, where you stay at home except for when it is essential. Harsher lock downs, sooner
  • Dedicated quarantine centres – we have them in Australia for pets and racehorses, we can make them for people. Remove the ability for the virus to escape quarantine
  • Enforced isolation – in Australia, 50% of people who were told to self-isolate still left their homes. All self-isolation must be strictly monitored, ideally with ankle bracelets or a phone app that uses location
  • Concierge – people in self-isolation need zero excuses to break the rules. So give them a hotline to a concierge who will coordinate all their heath and supplies, for free. Even give people a free Uber Eats account. Make them feel like they are treated well for the inconvenience.
  • Reward, not punish – if someone tests positive, there are things they need to do, like self-isolate and not have visitors. They will often not be able to work. Reward them – like giving everyone who tests positive $500, on top of any other welfare payments. Obviously it can’t be high enough that people choose to catch it!
  • No limits on testing – if the system can’t cope, improve the system. In an ideal world, everyone gets tested in the first week. Like the entire city or country.
  • Natural boundaries – when one location has an outbreak and locks down, make the location a natural one, not an administrative one.
  • Money matters not – federal governments can print more money. Not a single decision should be based on money.
  • Prison for people who spread misinformation – no bail. Lock them up. Be harsh.
  • All interest, repayments and rent on hold – for anybody who has to close their business or cannot work.