Author Archives: Futures Broker

Product Participation

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  • We have RFID tracking for products
  • We can track each step of production (origin of ingredients) and distribution
  • We have crowd-funding

What if we crowd-funded ethical ingredients instead of finished products.

Imagine an alliance of certified eco-friendly palm oil. Consumers sponsored their efforts monetarily, or give them a digital blessing.

When you buy a food item at the supermarket, you can scan the RFID chip with your phone to see if any ingredients have been supported by you, and to which degree.

 

 

Being Ready for the Next Wave/Pandemic

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It has obviously been a huge learning curve, and the nature of the COVID-19 pandemic is that every country could have responded better. Aside from populist leaders denying the severity, I don’t think anyone is to blame.

What does bother me is that we are not thinking of the next. Normal protocol is to deal the now, and then have a year or two of commissions and enquiries.

Because there is bound to be multiple waves, and any other pandemic can still occur at any time, we need to start our next level of response now.

We have some facts we can base our new responses on:

Aside from the originating city/country, the virus arrives via visitors. If you stop all visitors, you don’t get the virus.

Stopping all visitors is not good in other ways:

  • tourism
  • business
  • sport
  • repatriation

So some countries have introduced quarantines. The countries that introduced these earliest and hardest have been the least affected by the pandemic.

Quarantine is a relatively cheap solution, relative to deaths and economic losses. It is fair to say that there should be no limit on expense put towards quarantine. Because if you get it perfect, your city/country can complete avoid the virus.

Here’s the thing:

Countries like Australia, with no land borders and a need to protect flora and fauna, already have super-tight quarantine measures in place for plants and animals.

For example, “All pets entering Australia, except those from New Zealand or Norfolk Island are subject to 10 days of quarantine at the Mickleham Quarantine Facility at Melbourne.”

We simply need to apply the same levels of biosecurity to humans entering our city/country. And that means investment in new and dedicated infrastructure. Not using existing facilities like homes and hotels.

Solution:

Purpose-built quarantine centres, designed for pandemics, with their own airports.

We can start building them today. Even if the next pandemic is 100 years away, an airport and buildings will still be the solution. And still a mighty cheap way of avoiding an economic crisis.

Buildings and runways require maintenance, and more value can be had from using them for other things. So meanwhile, lets use them for animals and plants, for refugees, or as a low-security prison (we can free existing prisoners in case of a pandemic).

Facilities:

  • Own, international length airport
  • Self-contained accomodation units, with no connection to each other
  • “airlocks” for the transmission of food and other supplies
  • Highly trained staff

The jobs are low-skilled but require a high degree of trust, so outsourcing is not acceptable.

Given the potential of decades between being needed, staff can be used for other roles – anything that can be done remotely, for example cyber-security. As long as the key criteria is to be able to manage a quarantine situation, we can have staff who perform any other government roles.

Place the facility close enough to a regional city and it is good for the economy.

Bonus points:

Have some planes that can be adapted to transporting potentially contagious people.

If Australia already had the above, I am sure we would be virus-free today

CLO Alert: Sell Shares Now!

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Being a futurist is difficult and potentially embarrassing.

Making short term economical predictions is foolhardy, unless you produce carefully worded statements that always end up correct in retrospect.

I bought big on the sharemarket a the lowest point of the Global Financial Crisis, and my buying was leveraged. Then a short while later, there was a new, deep low point. After a decade of waiting for such an opportune moment, I was too keen, and lacked the caution required.

Tomorrow I am selling all my shares except for gold. But only if they go up in value, even a little. I need that psychological feel good factor of winning, even if I have only improved upon what Friday’s prices would have given me.

But the reasoning is solid:

  • Inexperienced investors are gambling on travel-related stocks, thinking everything will come right quickly
  • The sharemarket is still very volatile, months into the pandemic, indicating nobody is certain of anything
  • Trump’s Tulsa campaign rally is symptomatic of a lack of care from leaders that will easily trigger a second wave, or a first wave that keeps going. At some point the bad news of things worsening will cause a big drop on Wall Street
  • But mostly, CLOs have me worried…

After the housing crisis, subprime CDOs naturally fell out of favor. Demand shifted to a similar—and similarly risky—instrument, one that even has a similar name: the CLO, or collateralized loan obligation. A CLO walks and talks like a CDO, but in place of loans made to home buyers are loans made to businesses—specifically, troubled businesses. CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/

Governments are propping up businesses as best they can during the pandemic, but on the other side there will be a lot of failures, where debts to banks cannot be paid. CLOs are the same as the home loads of the GFC – sold so many times that nobody knows what they really are, and they are really risky loans that perhaps should not have been made. And certainly not loans anyone wants to be carrying in this climate.

The big risk, as speculated in the above article, is that the government won’t bail out banks this time. Even if it does, the uncertainty preceding such a decision could be disastrous to the share market.

I’m buying gold.

 

 

Cute Park Wardens

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Could apply to other public spaces…

Going forward, social distancing in parks might be something we feel should be policed.

What if it could be done in a cute and friendly manner?

Maybe tell people off for smoking, drinking or not picking up dog poop…

A robot animal that is Hello Kitty level cute. If social groups are too close to each other, it trundles over and gently nudges them in the direction of away from each other.

When it sees an infraction, it comes over and just shakes its head and softly says nuh-ah!

Simply being targeted by the cure creature will be enough for most people to conform. Otherwise, of course, community cops will turn up sooner or later.

It would work in tandem with overhead cameras and AI.

Digital Currency – Not Much Needs to Change

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The biggest issue is the removal of physical cash, and especially how that affects older people, and those without bank accounts. I don’t have an answer for that…

There a numerous ideas of how digital currencies will work, and it seems clear to me that we already have the solution in place, structurally. Here are the components of money for the future:

Digital version of state currency

  • It will run alongside traditional money for a few years
  • The backbone run by the government
  • Citizens still deal with banks

Privacy will be unchanged. Your bank knows your transactions, and the government can ask the bank for details.

Cryptocurrency

People can choose to transact using cryptocurrencies, as long as the other party accepts it. However, just like physical cash, all transactions over a certain amount – in Australia it is $10,000 – must be reported (legally anyway, and probably hard to enforce). Otherwise, totally private, with the trade-off being less stability, less trust and less likely to be accepted.

So cash and non-cash transactions become crypto and digital currency transactions, with the same rules and processes remaining.

International

And finally, there will be a big brand crypto player that people choose to use internationally. The special advantage will be for unstable economies with high inflation.

Just like PayPal and Western Union today, the global crypto will need to abide by the local laws of each country, so it won’t be particularly private.

Facebook’s Libra project is a good template for how it would work, although established players like PayPal have established trust, and Google/Amazon can leverage their digital products to seed such a currency.

Replacing the tribalism of sports venues / rock concerts

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See below for the concept, a mashup of Second Life, Minecraft and Animal Crossing.

Quite possibly the days of filling stadiums and arenas are over. Which creates a huge gap in the human need (for many) to revel in tribal activities en masse.

It isn’t just being present at such events that matters, or being around like-minded people. It is the feeling that in some, even very small way, that your presence makes a difference. Your part in the cheering helps your team score a goal, or the lead singer acknowledges the crowd. Your singing along makes you part if the music, and that goal was influenced slightly by you.

So the solution is not using VR to make it seem like you are there in the stadium. That is not participatory . In theory speakers could be placed in stadium so each participant is heard by the players, so that could perhaps be tested.

Otherwise, real world replacements are unlikely, so we must go online.

Unaffected by COVID-19 are multi-player video games like Fortnite. This fit criteria for tribal event participation, and even let you be there with a friend, who you can chat with. There have even been concerts held within Fortnite, although players are not influencing the performance in any way, which is most likely pre-recorded. Maybe Fortnite could incorporate player feedback coming in via the headsets, for performers to respond to?

Instead of replacing sports and entertainment in the digital realm, we could simulate all aspects of living, with an actual simulation of life like Second Life attempted, and Animal Crossing is currently succeeding with.

Second Life failed because it was too open, and it involved a currency. Animal Crossing is overly scripted, and not open enough, not enough individuality for players.

Here’s an outline of what I believe will work. Keep in mind this is digital, so can evolve.

The Town

Towns have a maximum of 3,000 people. When you first arrive the population could be anywhere between 0 and 3,000. Premium subscribers might be able to be guaranteed being in the first 200. Allocation is based on your preferred timezone (choose carefully if you are a shift worker).

Towns start completely blank, but with landscape features, just like Minecraft. Unlike Minecraft, nothing can be removed, except by who built it, or by the system due to inactivity of the player.

The town includes farmland and a river, a town hall and square, an arena, and interesting perimeters of ocean, mountains or desert. The town is not on an island.

Every town starts exactly the same, with only the perimeters varying, and they are visual only, not interactive.

Pieces of land are in a fixed pattern, same pattern for every town. The pieces of land are not necessarily square, but not necessarily not square either. They will fit in with the landscape.

All properties will be completely surrounded by easements, which are public property, and can be traversed. Those easements most heavily traversed will become paved, and if people stop using them, they revert to dirt.

Once a town is full, any unclaimed land – there will always be plenty – is randomly filled with public land like parks and forests.

Every completed town gets a sacred animal, like India has sacred cows. These animals can wander around and do their thing. If it is a goat, make sure you fence everything!

Nature and seasons are a major part of gameplay. Disasters like floods and fires, although rare, do happen.

Player Characters

Avatar faces are over-sized, like most cartoon characters.

Your avatar can be one of several species, each of which has a unique ability. It has the same customisation possibilities of other popular games.

OR, your player can be human, and get all of the unique abilities. The only catch is that you must use your own face (body type is up to you). Your face will look like you precisely, with three exceptions which are customisable:

hair
skin
one facial feature of your choice

So, you can choose a new nose, new ears, new teeth… but just one of. The idea is that anyone who knows you should be able to recognise you.

Premium users can live in 2 different towns, if they wish, but with only one character. They cannot be in both places at once.

Players have robot clones of themselves, clearly marked placeholders that can be told to perform routine tasks while the player isn’t present. They can operate the business or farm, feed children, and be programmed with a temporary catchphrase.

 

Gameplay

Time is upside down and stretched.  6pm in real life is 6am in your town. 8am in real life is midnight. Between midnight and 6am in the game, all is frozen. Where you are at midnight is where you start at 6am.

You initially choose a role, such a shopkeeper, farmer, teacher, delivery driver, repairer. You can change role every 2 weeks, if you wish, but will lose experience points earned from that role, relative to how quickly you gave up. After 3 months in a role you cannot lose those points.

Everyone gets a business location and a home location. Early arrivals have more chance of making those locations adjacent. Your role dictates where you can build, and the tools you can build with. For example, your home cannot have a cash register, and your bakery cannot have a bed.

Just like the real world, your buildings can be designed however you wish, but there are zones and restrictions. Homes cannot exceed 2 stories, but can gave a basement, for example.

Construction will be just like Minecraft. Anything newly built or changed will be greyed out and not usable for 3 days.

You can have make friends in the game, simply enter their username and they verify they know you.  You can use this process to find your own real world friends. You can visit them, and you can ask to be in the same town as them, if a place is/becomes available.

After 3 months you can choose to move to a new town. It is randomly chosen. Your points carry with you. You will be given a role, rather than choosing.

Or you can swap places with someone in your town – straight swap of home and business.

There will be a limit on friendships. Dominating a town will not be possible.

Players can visit other towns as tourists whenever they want. They can converse with locals, and interact with businesses. They can’t take anything to/from other lands except themselves.  If looking for real world friend, they have to ask people for directions – streets don’t have names!

Visitor numbers are limited.

Travel is by teleport. The teleport pad is in the middle of the town square, where all new townsfolk also arrive.

You play for points! Experience points. Points have advantages:

  • avatar customisation
  • building items, like swimming pools
  • fancy cars
  • able to run for public office, or stage events
  • ability to share a life/business

The latter is a bit out there. Every player can invite one other player (with sufficient points), to work with them in their business, or have a room in their house (and look after the same kids).

Just like in real life we have can business partners and romantic partners. The person who invites, can remove the other at any time, if they choose.

Politics! The types of decisions and votes are limited, but fun. For example, polygamy could be allowed. Or there may be an emergency that needs dealing with, like a pandemic, with choices of lockdown or herd immunity.

Business Model ideas

Freemium – say 10 hours per month for ad-supported use, while to play more you need to pay, but you receive credits for any ad revenue that you generate.

Ads could appear anywhere they would in the real world – sides of buildings, billboards, video screens.

Buildings or events could be sponsored.

Credits could be used for customisations, like skins in Fortnite.

Additional Thoughts

Some towns could be specifically for people who identify as being a particular age, relationship status, sexual identity, language or religion

Real world activity could be reflected to some degree. For example if you are listening to music in real life, your avatar could have headphones on, and a message showing what you are listening to

 

Fixed Responsive Websites

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All they could be called Rich AMP.

Right now we have text-only type pages designed for fast loading, easy to read. Or we have bloated pages with 20 forms of tracking and numerous elements that make the page footprint longer as they load, shifting things about as you are trying to read.

SEO-first news sites like the Daily Mail are culprits.

And don’t get me started with continuous scrolling. Try reaching links in the footer when that is happening.

A future standard is one that could be announced at the very top of the page, so people learn to appreciate that faster loads and easier use.

I would include:

Placeholders for content not yet loaded, that leave a blank space of the same size, or preferably a symbol that means it has yet to arrive.

Minimal tracking. While this might sound hard for large companies that advertise on many channels, if all they are measuring is engagement, all they need is Google Analytics. Sometimes such things are overly automated for only marginal benefits.

No misleading ads. Too often the video you think you have come to see is an ad, and the actual video is further down the page. If the key content is a video, it should be the only video on the page.

“Related content” should be links to your own content, not ads.

No continuous scrolling that makes the page longer. It could be restricted to a frame, or paginated.

COVID-19 and Property Values

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The pandemic will cause commercial property values to drop significantly. This will cause property owners to default on mortgage repayments, and then those properties will find new owners at a lower price, who will then offer lower rent.

Offices

The trend has to be away from working in offices.

  • Many businesses now know that they can have work-from-home staff, and any fears they had regarding work actually getting done could have been reduced
  • Co-working spaces were never hugely profitable, and are not likely to be resurrected. Those workers are already working mostly remotely and will shift to home
  •  Reduced staff numbers in existing offices means reduced space utility, which means downward pressure on rent

Restaurants

Restaurants will not have more seated customers than before the pandemic, so the same or less are the only ways it can go. So expect rent to drop, or food prices to increase

  • People have become more used to feeding themselves at home
  • Even if the law allows it, some people will not like being seated so close to others
  • Table service might disappear – the most likely spreader is a waiter who talks to dozens of tables every night
  • Home delivery will be higher than pre-pandemic, as even more people have become used to it

Retail

Retail was already disappearing in the physical world.

  • More people will have discovered and become used to online shopping
  • Some people will have a long-term distaste for being in busy malls purely to shop
  • Malls will continue to pivot towards food and experiences
  • Supermarkets will stay busier

Residential

After being stuck in apartments for months, people will (even if just subconsciously) desire more space at home. Prices for standalone houses will rise much more than apartments.

  • People now working from home will want more space
  • We will have developed more pride of our homes
  • Entertaining friends at home will increase, instead of meeting in public spaces
  • Homes with gardens will be desired

 

Post-Pandemic Thermal Imaging

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Self-isolation during the 2020 pandemic had an interesting side-effect – far less people catching the flu.

Possibly earlier administration of vaccines were a factor, but it will not be surprising to see lesser contact presumed to be the the key.

Over 50% of elderly deaths come from preventable infections, and the repercussions of falls.

Thermal imaging is affordable and easy to implement. Just like we have metal detectors when entering facilities like courts and prisons, expect to see thermal imaging checking for fevers when entering aged-care facilities and hospitals.

A minor inconvenience to save lives.

Expect life expectancies to increase substantially, quickly.

Note: alternative or complimentary technology may emerge in the home. Instead of having thermal imaging in the greater world, we could have thermal imaging (and various other forms of self-diagnosis) in the home. Some tests could be part of a morning ritual like brushing your teeth and checking the weather forecast

2030: No More Phones

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It is often said than the modern smart phone is 10 gadgets in 1. That decades ago we needed to lug around a video camera, gaming console and so on to replicate what we get from a single device today.

Ten years from now we might not have phones any more. Except for… typing. They could be called a tyoer.

Camera: The trend is towards cameras being everywhere. Having to hold a phone to take a photo or video is very limiting. Imagine if you were at a bar, that has cameras everywhere. You and your buddies huddle together, and don’t even need to say “group photo”. The AI of the bar recognises the situation, knows who you all are, and sends you 5 photos for you to choose from before sharing.

Combine that with your personal drone, a flying device that is always hovering above you, filming and monitoring, looking for friends, dangers and opportunities.

And first person views, which cannot be filmed using other people’s cameras or your drone, will be filmed by your AR glasses.

Phone: Your AR glasses will have that covered.

Social Media: Your AR glasses will have that covered.

Maps: Your AR glasses will have that covered. Or your car.

Texting: This is the problem. Just as people are talking on phones less, and texting more, I cannot see us dictating to our AR glasses in public. We will want to type. Maybe our AR glasses can project a virtual keyboard onto whatever close surface we look at? Or will we carry little keyboards with us – because we will still have bags. Maybe built into the outside of your bag? Or on top of a book cover?