Uber Eats etc will die and come back

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Here in Australia restaurant meal deliveries are a big hit, and just like Uber’s taxi service, it is only the consumers that win.

The delivery drivers suffer very low wages because they are not actually employees and not subject to a minimum wage. They also have high pressure to perform or else lose the gig.

Restaurants are paying large fees to get their food delivered, and suffering less table service, which is definitely more profitable for them.

Uber Eats etc are running at losses to gain market share.

Prediction: In Australia and maybe other countries like the USA, new laws will forbid single purpose gig companies from using contract labour. Such companies will struggle to fight this, because they would have to admit they don’t provide a minimum wage. And when the law comes in, Uber Eats etc will quit the game.

Then, because people have become so used to restaurant food, they will return to eating out, and levels of restaurant patronage will be higher than ever.

Then, when robots start doing deliveries everywhere, we will return to eating at home, and the deliveries will be substantially cheaper to provide, benefiting all…

…except we need to find jobs for the delivery drivers who are typically unskilled or recent immigrants.

A Social Platform Based on Trust

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With the rise of fake news and deep fake videos, Verified Accounts are the future.

Add to this a layer where verified people/companies can acknowledge news stories as being factual.

While also allowing unverified stories to be shared. Every post will be tagged one of these:

  • fun
  • factual
  • verified
  • opinion
  • unsure

Accounts that get repeatedly reported for hate or lies will be investigated. They will be offered their own parallel channel to exist in.

But – What About The Other Thing?

It is one thing to offer up official information, but how can you disprove content that depicts you unofficially?

For example, well-known Australian gameshow host Andrew O’Keefe:

Now I’ve done the same thing in the same place… but I’m not famous.

If that was faked, there is only one way to refute it –  a drone that constantly films you when you are in public, time-stamped and verified by a trusted 3rd party. 

Open Source Uber

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uber

Parts of the Uber software can be replicated and provided as a open-source product. Uber consists of

  • Location mapping
  • Payment processing
  • Pricing based on complex demand algorithms

What if an app had only the first two components? And the third was replaced with manual bidding by drivers?

Here’s how it would work:

  1. User tells the app they want a ride, just like in Uber
  2. The 15 closest available drivers are alerted and respond with a fare they will work for
  3. The quickest 5 offers appear in the app, and the user gets to see where they are, estimated times, and the rating of each driver
  4. The rest works just like Uber

Such an app would give all power to the drivers, who would operate the app as a collective. The overheads would be substantially less than the commission charged by Uber, meaning cheaper fares for riders and higher income for drivers.

Because Uber drivers famously aren’t employees, they would be able to use the co-op app at the same time as Uber, meaning it is low risk to try.

Note Libre Taxi seem to be partway there…

The Fall and Rise of Experience$

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Here are some things I know:

We spend less money on things these days. A microwave is $29. A kettle is $9. An excellent TV (based on my lifetime of watching it) is just a few hundred dollars. Even cars are getting a little bit cheaper.

So instead, futurists tell us, we are spending money on experiences. Especially if you consider fashion an experience, as people spend more on fashion than ever, for less actual quality and far lower counts of wearing each item.

Instead of things, we are paying for contrived gym classes, life coaches, volunteer tourism, escape rooms and adventure sports.

But here’s the thing – we are also spending less on experiences.

Chemists / Pharmacies – not too long ago you would go to a chemist and ask for help. Now, in Australia, traditional chemists are being replaced with chemist supermarkets like Chemist Warehouse.

Restaurants used to be an experience, and typically a shared experience. Home delivery has skyrocketed. Same food, sans experience.

Trams/trains used to have conductors who you could get advice from.

Clothing and electronic stores used to have many more sales people who gave you advice on what to buy.

We used to trust banks and financial advisors.

What Has Changed?

Collectively we have become more cost-efficient and smarter. We self-diagnose, research our travel plans, read product reviews, and have decided that takeout and Netflix is a better experience than eating in a restaurant. We invest our money and receive loans online.

On top of that, it is clear to me that experiences are a fad or fashion. The moment we have young adults whose parents went bungie jumping, that will be less appealing to their generation.

  • We no longer need help
  • We no longer trust “professional” advice
  • Experiences are fashionable.

What Will Prosper?

Travel. The available experiences are only limited by human experience itself. And transportation keeps getting cheaper.

Shopping Experiences for the Rich. People still want to be fussed over, if they can afford it.

Bars, Cinemas and Restaurants. Competition from home delivery and in-home entertainment will continue, but cinemas are still strong despite the rise of TV, and social venues will always be a thing. Mediocre will no longer cut it (see Gold Class cinemas in Australia, and restaurants with degustation menus).

Supermarkets for fresh goods. People still want to judge the quality, and supermarkets will make it more of an experience. The baker will be in front of you, not behind a wall. Supermarkets will be a food court of fresh food artisans and advisors. Eating in-store will be a big trend.

Competitive Sport. Think Ten Pin Bowling, except there is a never-ending number of social sports than could be invented. Men will be dedicated, women will have the occasional fu night out. Just like bowling.

What Will Wither?

Car Sales Yards. You will research online, test drives will come to you. You will order online.

Middle-class Department Stores. Already very obvious. The most expensive department stores, and dollar stores, will continue to do okay.

Multi-brand fashion stores. Think shoe stores. People will go to a Nike store because that is their preferred brand, be dazzled, and order in-store for at-home delivery. Instead of going to a multi-brand shoe store, asking if they have Nike, trying it on, then ordering from home via Amazon.

Amazon. It will be seen as the dollar shop equivalent. Buying direct from the manufacturer will be just as cheap. And non-brand products will lose appeal as people realise they are (generally) inferior.

Supermarkets for dry goods. Staple, repeated purchases will be delivered.

 

Natural v Sheeple

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sheeple

The whole automated home thing bugs me. It seems to be the dividing line, it separates the sheeple from those who can think for themselves, and feel for themselves.

No free-thinking, spiritual/artistic being wants a fridge that orders the thing you just ran out of.

No soulful individual wants a world that is 19.0 degrees Celsius permanently.

Nobody with a heart desires an algorithm that spews out music that will always please you pleasantly.

And I’ve yet to see a dating system that comes vaguely close to matching me with someone suitable.

Shun easy. Revert to old ways. Fight the demise of the beating pulse of humanity.

Are you a natural? Do you dare walk into a warm room, turn on the aircon, and then after 10 seconds of extremely mild discomfort feel the change of temperature and smile?

 

Universal Basic Income and Reparation for Slavery in the USA

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There has been a lot of talk about Universal Basic Income recently, the pros and cons of it. Some of the good aspects are:

  • Replaces welfare payments without the costs of bureaucracy
  • Typically inspires people to do more with their life, not less
  • In the USA especially, will save people from working 2 full-time jobs
  • Helps address the growing divide between poor and rich

And if the USA wants to keep selling us the idea that they are the greatest and richest democracy of all time, giving a UBI to help their poorest seems like the least they can do.

Negatives include failed experiments that weren’t as well run or run long enough to be meaningful. And the obvious cost, which must be met by increased taxation.

But here is an additional benefit – reparation for slavery. This is a hugely complicated argument, and one of the hardest parts is actually identifying who gets paid, and of course how much.

Given that actual reparation will never occur, and black people in the USA are worse off in general – regardless of the reasons – then a UBI is a way of effectively providing reparation without specifically doing so.

It is a fuzzy solution, and that is OK. Because fuzzy, with all of its faults, is better than nothing.

  • All disadvantaged people will see an improvement in their lives
  • Including black people as a form of reparation
  • Some people will choose to be lazy. They probably would anyway
  • Most people will use the cash to improve their life
  • The economy will get a boost. Politicians who believe in “trickle down” will struggle to disagree with “trickle up”
  • It won’t be available to people outside of the tax system – illegal immigrants

 

Compulsory Charitable Donations

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The majority of charities do work that should be directly supported by the government. But governments, rightly or wrongly, make sure that donations from citizens are also required to support charities.

Any compulsory giving to charities benefits all of society, as well as the emotional well-being of those who give.

Profits – it has been suggested that a way for some businesses (for example, insurance companies) to operate would be to cap their profits at a certain amount – say 5% of capital, and that any excess be given to charity. That would let businesses be successful, but at the same time limit the motivation of profit.

Fines – governments fining businesses who do wrong could also be seen to have a more genuine motivation if those fines were donated to charity.

Taxes – meanwhile, one of the world’s richest people, Michael Dell, says the super-rich shouldn’t be taxed at higher rates because they tend to very philanthropic people, and money is better going to the causes they support, than to the government. Perhaps their charitable donations could be 100% tax deductible, and their income taxes rate rise at the same time.

For this to occur, the regulation and oversight of charities would need to increase significantly, as well as laws requiring complete separation from the charities you give to – perhaps even two or three degrees of separation. Any organisation that receives funding or support from a charity would need to publicly disclose this. 

Obvious Fakes

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puma

I predict a backlash against major fashion brands…

The most famous brands have fake equivalents, buy them in Asia.

Apparently they are made in the same factory, after hours, with inferior materials.

When you come back with designer goods. from Asia, everyone knows it is a fake, and you will admit as much.

So why not make it a blanket statement?

The fakers deliberately misspell the brand name, or incorporate the word “fake” into the design.

The consumers deliberately use those goods, that are clearly fake, A statement.

We can own brands by belittling them.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/hilariously-bad-chinese-knock-offs-of-famous-american-and-european-brands-2012-8

VirtuCoin: Killer Non-Government Economic Combo

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You can take a bunch of trends and combine them into an alternate economy:

  • cryptocurrencies
  • equality
  • socialism
  • veganism
  • anti-war
  • corporate responsibility
  • corporate activism
  • libertarianism

In Essence:

  • Create a stablecoin (pegged to a currency or something else with a steady value).
  • Call it VirtuCoin, as in virtuous.
  • Create a payment processor (like PayPal).
  • Only allow it to be used by merchants that fit the criteria, such as not using slave labour. Or not evading taxes.

Many people want to consciously support good businesses, and not the “bad” ones. But it takes a lot of work, so much work it is more suited to an unemployed lefty vegan.

What if you used a currency that could only be used with good businesses, and only received from good businesses?

Then you create an alternate economy. Those who are excluded from it will be incentivised to improve their practises.

Investment funds exist that are like this, but they typically perform poorly, because they bad guys make more profits. By utilising spending power, change can occur.

The Trick: Start off with the least restrictions, but enough to exclude say 5-10% of major corporations. Then with time, tighten the screws.

End game examples:

Not valid for any merchant that sells Nestle products
Not valid for any merchant that sells cage eggs
Not valid with any fast food chains with restaurants in China
Not valid for electricity companies that have no renewable energy
Not valid for businesses in the USA that pay employees below $x per hour
Not valid for ISPs that lack net neutrailty

The Problems:

Very hard to please everyone
There will be a cost maintaining and monitoring business restrictions

Getting Started:

Prominent “good” businesses work together to create this, and they seed it by paying their staff a bonus with Virtucoin.
Those businesses must be undeniably good. Like Patagonia. They belong to various alliances – members of any of those could be a good starting point

Stability:

Tied to the US dollar on issue.
Ties to the US dollar on redemption.

Currencies go up and down, and major currencies go up and down quite slowly.

In the short term, your spending ability won’t vary too much from the initial value of the VirtuCoin.

In the long term, the value of the VirtuCoin can increase and decrease with equal probability (very few people can predict and profit from currency speculation).

Short term, spending the VirtuCoin is preferable.

Long term, if you don’t spend it, it might increase or decrease in value.

Bonus Feature:

For every 3 months your VirtuCoin is not spent, 1% of it is sent to the charity of your choice.

2/3 Not

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Restaurant idea. Guarantees that there will be:

  • Sweets and Desserts with less than 33% sugar
  • Main meals with less than 33% carbs

That’s it. Easy to understand and easier than most diets