Author Archives: Futures Broker

Alexa Will Win

Posted on by

Alexa will win the smart assistant war because of first mover advantage.

eBay won the online auction war because it got susbtantial traction first. Why go to any other auction site if eBay has substantially more items for sale?

Alexa will kinda win in the same way. Because it has the most users, Alexa has more data, which means the machine learning will be learning more, and quicker.

People will notice that Alexa is more natural and understanding than the competing devices, and gravitate towards it. There will certainly be smart assistant envy.

That is only half the story, because interoperability is also important. If you use Google Calendar, then using Google’s device makes sense. If you use Skype, then Cortana could be your choice.

So far Alexa is doing well – it can access calendars from its competitors. And Alexa can directly call mobiles and landline numbers in North America, as well as Alexa-to-Alexa calls.

As long as Alexa provides the features and interoperability that people want, Amazon will be unstoppable. They will become the new Android. And perhaps the new Google.

Posted in AI

Security Watch

Posted on by

 

We can do a lot on our phones these days, that saves us carrying other things around (like an iPod or a camera). The latest is the ability to pay with your phone, no more carrying a wallet…

And the Apple watch is now shifting those functions to your wrist.

So, in the near future, when I leave my apartment, go for a run, get a drink, pop into the gym… I still need to carry things.

  • Loyalty cards
  • Keys for my apartment
  • Key fob to get into the apartment building
  • Key fob to get into the gym

I rent, so changing the lock of my apartment isn’t easily achieved, and I still need a fob to get into the building.

My car has keys, but if it had a fob, well that’s another fob.

I think there is an opening for this last mile to be completed. Forget home-automation, and move into the territory of your phone/watch unlocking things. Actually, phones get lost/stolen.

Introducing the Security Watch

Either as a standalone or part of a smart watch. But when part of a smart watch, it has a separate battery for the security features, so a flat watch battery from too much chatting won’t keep you from getting inside your home.

Has to be standardised. Ideally a thrid party designs this, because Apple/Samsung/Amazon/Google will want to use their own proprietary systems.

Works universally. Allows access and entry to your car, home, workplace, gym. Used for loyalty cards. Used for VIP access to a club. Anywhere that one way ID is needed (so not purchases).

Kids can wear them.

Waterproof and shockproof, obviously.

As a standalone device it needs to last one month on a charge. As part of a smartphone, it recharges when you charge the phone.

Here’s a key concept. There is always a physical version of the key/card/fob you are replacing. And that key/card/fob is what you use to get permissions for your Security Watch.

1. Push the connect buttons on your Security Watch and key/card/fob at the same time to connect them
2. The key/card/fob sends a message to the manufacturer to check if more users are available (so a house might get a 10 user limit, a car 5, a gym pass one), and registers them.
3. The user verifies their ID on the Security Watch by PIN and biometrics.
4. If 2 & 3 are successful, all is set up.

So your entry card for work gets activated on your Security Watch, but you keep that card somewhere safe at home, in case you ever need it.

(And keep, a spare house key with a friend…)

AI Will Learn From Kids

Posted on by
alexa

P#rn has been responsible for pioneering a lot of online technology, which would surprise many people. Similarly, AI and smart assistants are going to (surprisingly) grow from their interactions with children.

Adults will use smart assistants like Alexa to replace activities they already do anyway, like finding out cinema times. Children being born now will grow up with Alexa, and consider Alexa to be:

capable of anything

a friend

Children being born now will consider Alexa (or one of the others) to be their friend and constant companion. Children won’t cope well without their friend nearby.

Children will play with Alexa. They will draw together on a tablet. They will sing together. They will make up stories together. They will share secrets.

AI will learn massively from children, because they will learn and discover together…

Posted in AI

Reporta – Free App Idea – Could Be Huge!

Posted on by

obikes

A very easy to build app could be massive if you get the right stakeholders on board:

  • Police
  • Council
  • TV/Radio/Newspapers
  • VicRoads (local road authority)

The concept is basic – take a photo (or video if need be), the GPS location is tagged, you type short message (or nothing if the photo tells the story), and you choose which authority to send it to. Not anonymous, your name and phone number will be included.

See any of these and report them, quickly:

  • Crime
  • oBike in a stupid place (or damaged)
  • Graffiti
  • Potholes
  • Damaged public property, like road signs
  • Storm damage

For something like a pothole, if enough people report it, the council will be prompted to make fixing it a priority.

There is no revenue model, except maybe if everyone ends up installing it, media might pay for photos or videos

AI Squared: AugMe

Posted on by

Scenario: it is 2am, you are drunk, you are asking Alexa to order the latest microscopic drone.

Without Assistance:

You: Alexa, order me that XYZ Zippy Drone please
Alexa: Sure, no problem. Do you agree to pay $800 plus a $65 expedited delivery fee?
You: Yep

With your own AI Assistance Bot:

You: Alexa, order me that XYZ Zippy Drone please
Alexa: Sure, no problem. Do you agree to pay $800 plus a $65 expedited delivery fee?
Assistance Bot: Rob, you only have $200 in savings, do you really want to go into debt for this? It only has a 3-star rating and has negligible utility value
Rob: I want it, whack it on the card
Assistance Bot: Delivery is free if it takes 3 days, would you like that instead?
Rob: Hell yeah!
Assistance Bot: Alexa, please proceed with the order but with the free delivery option please

This will be the next big thing, around  5 years from now – Augmented Me.

Imagine being at the supermarket, and your AugMe negotiates with the automated checkout:

Assistance Bot: He doesn’t want to redeem points, he is paying with this card, here is his PIN, he doesn’t need a receipt.

 

 

Social First, Secondhand Second

Posted on by

Screen Shot 2017-10-29 at 9.42.33 pm

I think Carousell has something. Used goods x social. eBay hasn’t even attempted this. Facebook has, but cautiously, as a side bet.

Do you know someone who goes to yard sales / garage sales all the time. They probably like similar people. Get them friendly online, and then get them sharing used goods vendors. This will be niche bigly.

AR Games Won’t Last

Posted on by

It’s mighty impressive what can appear to in you real world, looking through your phone (or glasses). Augmented reality will be a great tool for getting practical things done, and sharing data and information.

But for playing games, there’s only two real differences between AR and VR games:

  • You pretend that it is happening in your current real world environment
  • You walk around looking like an idiot to everyone else, and potentially harming yourself

Given that virtual worlds can look like anything imaginable, including the real world, why limit a game to the current surroundings?

Just like how very few people talk on phones in public without holding the phone up to your head, people won’t be playing AR games in public. They’ll play in dedicated spaces at venues or at home.

Sorry, Magic Leap.

Greening Deserts

Posted on by

Accepting refugees into your country is expensive, it isn’t a profitable exercise and yet we do it.

Greening a desert isn’t financially viable, but countries like Egypt are doing it because they have to.

Everyone knows that the Northern Territory of Australia has excess water, and a large portion of Australia is desert.

Water can be channelled from NT to the the nearest desert. Trees can be grown and fauna introduced. With time and money, the desert can be transformed into a place where people can live and thrive.

The technology exists.

See this (until the end, it starts slow…): https://www.ted.com/talks/allan_savory_how_to_green_the_world_s_deserts_and_reverse_climate_change#t-1225273

If the workers are immigrant refugees, they can own the wealth that they achieve, and then stay or move on. What an amazing entry into a country to have created something from nothing.

For one expense, we can have:

  • More agricultural land
  • Work for refugees
  • Refugees proudly achieving

If a trial works, the potential is extraordinary. For example. we could welcome the entire Rohingya people.

 

Kitchen in a Box

Posted on by

commercial_kitchen_large

Future: more food deliveries to homes, less eating within inexpensive restaurants.

Problem: certain products, like burgers, don’t travel well and don’t easily stay hot.

Solution #1: use industrial premises that are near residential. Lower cost buildings because they are purely cooking and delivery. No seats, no toilets, no public parking.

Solution #2: create self-contained kitchens that can fit in a garage. They use portable gas and the only external connections required water and exhaust.

Result: food created affordably, sold at eat-in prices, delivered quickly.

Possible issues: parking for deliveries and deliverers. Waste.

Advantages: a kitchen-in-a-box can be mass-produced to the standards of a major fast food player, and deployed (or redeployed) in days. Can also be used for food-truck scenarios.

Basementland

Posted on by

basement

We want everywhere we go, be and exist to be beautiful and natural. Seeing as that isn’t realistic in a modern city, where do we least care about aesthetics? Work.

Don’t get me wrong, workspaces should strive to be pleasant, relaxed and inspiring. Work is however a chore, and when you daydream about going home or going out, those places need to be more appealing.

So, work, put it underground.

Seriously.

With modern lighting technology, underground need not be so bad. And I don’t mean totally underground. I’m thinking major mounds surrounded by parkland. As the foundation of a city. Mounds of various shapes, sizes and heights, with parks and rivers in-between. Public and private transport can be beneath everything else…

On top of the mounds are 1 or 2 storey shops and restaurants, and 3 storey apartment blocks. Some apartment blocks are wider or narrower, but they are all 3 stories high. And every apartment block roof is communal.

Public transport consists of underground, on-demand shuttle pods and the occasional private pod for those rich enough to need such a thing. They will get you to within 100 metres of where you are going. Above-ground will be buggies for those who aren’t able to walk.

Shops will have a maximum size restriction. This won’t be much of an issue, as most goods will be ordered online and delivered, using the same public transport system (and robots).

Above ground will be open air, with a focus on capturing rainwater through permeable surfaces. Civic centres will have roofs and temperature control, yet open at the edges.

Occasional 5 and 7 storey vertical farms will punctuate the landscape and provide fresh, local food. Meat will be grown deep down in Basementland.

All available surfaces will generate solar energy.

Suburbs will basically be self-contained, and between each suburb will be a forest, a real forest with wild animals. Sporting fields will exist near the edge and alternative culture will thrive deep within.