Author Archives: Futures Broker

The Next Twitter Won’t Be Social

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What we consider to be “social networks” mostly aren’t.

Facebook is a true social network, where keeping up with and communicating with hundreds of actual friends and acquaintances is typical. You cannot leave FB for a rival social network, because your friends are not there – Catch 22.

Twitter is mostly for following what famous people and news sources say, and commenting. Or people of minor fame in a Ponzi scheme of acknowledgment and validation. You can DM people but it wouldn’t matter if that went away.

Instagram is similar to Twitter – easily replaced, with connections not being critical in the real world.

Musk has mused that Twitter could become like WeChat, a Swiss-army-knife social app (there are many reasons why that would fail). I suggest that it should go the other way, and have zero social applications.

The next Twitter, I think Pony Express is a good name…

Pony Express would be just a news aggregator. So, the same as Twitter is now, but:

  • Greater variety of post types – images, links, long-form, PDF, press release, scores, polls, products with “buy now” buttons.
  • Categories for posts that you decide, like folders in an email account
  • No video.
  • No DMs
  • Sharing is all external, like “share to Facebook”
  • No promoted posts

It will need to be a system that can expand to have whichever post types business want.

Pony Express will have verified and non-verified users. Only the verified can post or leave comments. Everyone else can still read posts and share externally.

Verification is free, via TripledChecked.com. Because of the verification, which truly knows who you are, people will be very wary of doing anything illegal on Pony Express, which means moderation costs will be significantly reduced. We could even reward users for moderating – easily done by ratios of reporting and others verifying that there is a problem.

There will also be different subscription types. Standard is similar to what Twitter has today, ads that are not tailored to you. But if you are willing to see ads for categories like gambling, crypto etc, then you can earn credits/points/crypto for that, regardless of your interactions with them, but do you need levels of general activity.

If you pay, then you get to:

  • choose which categories of ads you see
  • see far fewer ads
  • prioritise the users that you follow, how they rank in your feed

Also different, is that the famous people / news sources that you follow, have their own profile page that is much better than what the other services offer. A page that can be your home page you send everyone to:

  • Links to everything you have – other socials, online store, etc (Pony Express will not have any store function)
  • Photos
  • Archive of posts, sortable by category as well
  • Badges (like a charity you have donated to, probably NFT-powered)
  • Endorsements (essentially the other users that you like)
  • Background art if you want, but it will be just wallpaper down the sides.
  • Music playlist (via a 3rd party)
  • Recommended books (affiliate with Amazon or the like)
  • Bio
  • Contact form for businesses

And so on. Not dissimilar to what the other networks have, but making it a true feature. Regular people can use it instead of having a website. Businesses can use a template that makes it is a good landing page for ads.

And here’s the killer – GET THE NEWS FIRST

For a fee (probably a freemium model), there is a companion app that is for creating the posts, and sending them to other platforms as well. Not unlike existing 3rd party tools that schedule posts. What makes it special is that your posts will appear on Pony Express first, and the others via a time delay. That delay might only be a few minutes, but everyone will know where they can get the news first.

What Next for Trumpty Dumpty?

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Presuming that Donald Trump avoids the humiliation of contending for the Republican 2024 nomination, and losing to DeSantis… what other options does Trump have?

We know that he wants to be in the limelight, and we know he likes winning, even if it is only himself who thinks it.

Meanwhile NewsMax is being sued (rightfully so) by Dominion Voting Machines.

  • NewsMax settles out of court for a hefty sum, and goes bankrupt. Why? Well, they are worth more without the negative publicity of a court case, and they’ll all get rich from it somehow.
  • Trump buys NewsMax and acts as if he is America’s leader with a regular time slot
  • TruthSocial gains traction after people leave Twitter. It is the same as Mastodon, but “American”
  • He uses NewsMax and TruthSocial to cross-promote each other
  • Trump keeps on endorsing politicians, keeps using MAGA.
  • A new conspiracy theory will turn up – we are overdue – and America’s right will become more splintered than ever
  • DeSantis wins in 2024, because either a) Biden lingers and is way too old, b) Harris runs and is not likeable (and not male and not white), c) the infighting over who else runs causes damage and they end up with someone sub-standard
  • However, enough MAGA candidates are elected to hold a balance of power, and Trump pulls their strings
  • Dirt on DeSantis comes out (Trump says he has some), and there is a push to replace him with Trump

Trump will buy NewsMax, finally, and aim to rule the US in his own way, pulling strings and taking credit. And not run for POTUS again. He will stay smugly content until his final days, with his new young wife.

Introducing Artus

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Artus is an art exploration app. Most art sharing sites/apps are either art for sale or sharing work between artists.

Artus is more like Twitter, with a far more viewers than creators.

To share your art, some of it must be 100% free, for any use.

The typical user is a lover of art (not a creator =- they are a minority), who can see new art daily, via:

  • Scrolling feed, like social media
  • New tabs in the browser (it is already loaded in the background)
  • Digital picture frames

When you like a piece of art, you can follow the artist (and potentially pay them for art somehow), or the style/theme, which is done vias AI analysis.

AI art is allowed but must be designated as such.
No photos.

Think of it as a TikTok scrolling activity, but for sophisticated people. Or Instagram but purely for art.

BTW, the Ello social network is kinda in the right direction, but the users seem to all be artists…

White House: AI Bill of Rights

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This is good news – a series of guidelines aimed at protecting the American public from burgeoning technologies that utilize artificial intelligence (AI). Here’s my take on how the 5 principles could affect one of the biggest services of all, Google Ads.

“Safe and Effective Systems” – Google have hubris and will resist any external input into how safe theirs is.

“Algorithmic Discrimination Protections” – only covers what is already enshrined in law as discrimination, like race and gender. Google has always been keen to not fail on this one.

“Data Privacy” – again, won’t be an issue, in the US. Google does have problems with using a global network of servers storing the data from particular countries who do not like that practice.

“Notice and Explanation,” argues that users should know whether an automated system is being used by a company in the first place by providing “generally accessible plain language documentation” that includes “clear descriptions” of how the system functions.

This is a big problem for Google. While they can cite commercial sensitivity for many things, they will struggle to simply explain how the machine learning does what it does. Already support staff cannot explain decisions that affect the account. However, the language of the guidelines also mention calibrated to the level of risk based on the context, and Google could argue that there is no risk, therefore nothing needs explaining. And they would have a point. Results can be judged daily, and the service discontinued if not satisfactory.

“Human Alternatives, Consideration, and Fallback” – this is the biggie.

“You should have access to timely human consideration and remedy by a fallback and escalation process if an automated system fails, it produces an error, or you would like to appeal or contest its impacts on you,” the blueprint says. “Human consideration and fallback should be accessible, equitable, effective, maintained, accompanied by appropriate operator training, and should not impose an unreasonable burden on the public.”

Google Ads suspends advertisers based on risk profiles created by machine learning. Such suspensions, from the dominant search advertising platform, can destroy livelihoods.

Google suspends accounts that look and feel like bad advertisers, without proof, and without much in the way of genuine recourse.

Google Ads is trending towards doing without humans altogether, and this is exactly the type of law we need to stop such things from happening. We cannot have a world where “the computer decided” is the final word.

10 Years of Ideas – A Recap

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This site began with my opinion that vertical farming of lettuce could not be profitable. The original example, SkyGreens in Singapore – well their site has not been updated in 8 years. Even so, many similar businesses are seemingly thriving. There is still a major problem – they all only grow lettuce and micro-greens – neither of which will solve hunger in the world.

The curved Apple Watch (2014) never arrived.

Stem cells are already being used to repair humans. This new discovery means it is highly likely that within a decade or two we will be able to repair virtually any damage to our bodies. 2014, and happening today.

In 2014 I kinda predicted BeReal. Well, what is next after BeReal: The next step forward would be real-time video updates – literally push a button and people you are connected to online can watch what is happening.

Spoken website navigation (2016) hasn’t happened yet, although the younger generation love Google searching with their voice

2017 – I absolutely called dark kitchens, but I called them kitchens in a box. My idea is better, they are portable.

And the same year I wrote about self-driving wheelie bins, two years before someone made one.

In 2019 I predicted the 360 Degree Mirror – it will be huge for whoever brings it to market.

The pandemic got me thinking about fake news, and I worked out a solution – truth panels.

Meanwhile, everyone is talking about metaverses (well, only Zuckerberg) and I have a way of making it work. It needs to be based on playing roles that are just like real life. A mashup of Second Life, Animal Crossing and Minecraft.

And finally, a prediction from 2020 that isn’t true yet, but we are strongly heading in that direction – governments are going to outlaw any actions derived from misinformation

Purposefully Raceless Given Names

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The pop star YoungBoy has the real name of Kentrell DeSean Gaulden. That would make it harder to get equal opportunities in the US, because it is almost impossible that he could be white, asian or latino.

If we wanted to end this, it won’t happen from black people giving their kids white names, or vice versa. Few people care about equality to go that far.

But we could come up with totally new names – not so unusual these days anyway – that are deliberately not favoured by any race or social status.

DeSean is a good start, because white folk already have Shaun/Sean/Shawn with different spellings. So a new spelling could be adopted by all, equally. Shaurn. It can be used to name the kids of progressive types of all colors. As a statement that has fewer downsides. And once it got publicity – a name with purpose – watch it take off!

Alternatively, because of how many latinos are in the US, and they are kinda/sorta a less polarised (black and white) race, blacks and whites could start giving their kids latino names, like Rosa.

AKA ethnically ambiguous names

AR Status

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Augmented Reality glasses are coming.

They will show us information about the places around us (especially stores).

They will show us the name and role of people at work.

But for strangers, there will be nothing. Privacy etc.

Unless… they choose to transmit something. It is unlikely to be anything personal because everyone, even criminals, will be able to read it, on their AR screen, when they look at you.

But it could be a status you set, maybe temporarily, more like what people adorn their cars with…

  • Go The 49ers!
  • Don’t Waste Water!
  • Single and Looking
  • DTF
  • They/them
  • Yes, it is a real Gucci bag
  • I am 6ft 7, no need to ask
  • I was born here, just like you
  • I just need $3 for some food
  • $75 for a BJ

Of course if this becomes a thing, expect it to be exploited by scammers as well.

Crypto Needs to be Circular

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As long as cryptocurrencies are related – in any way – to traditional currencies, they don’t have a chance.

They need to be able to stand on their own two feet, to work in isolation.

It is possible, we just need to find a set of services that form a circular economy. Here is a non-exhaustive starting point.

Platforms/Currencies that it can revolve around

Crypto
Game
Metaverse
Advertising (Google/FB)
Venture Capital
Crowdfunding
Equity Crowdfunding
Peer2Peer Lending
Services Platform (Fiverr)

Digital uses for the currency (must be primarily labour-intensive)

Web design
Game design
Graphic design
Writing
Journalism
Guest Posting
Translation
Programming
Tech Support
Consulting
Life Coaching
Virtual Assistant
Customer Care
Tutoring
Music / Voice Over / Jingles
Video Editing
Transcription
Influencer Marketing
Community Management

Offline (must be primarily labour-intensive)

Modelling
Personal Trainer
Gardening / Landscaping
Driving / Delivery (not own vehicle)
Hairdressing (for someone else’s salon, or from home)
Massage
Child care
Cleaner
Housesitter
Photography
Mystery Shopper
Furniture Assembly

The above is literally a starting point. Somebody might need to intuit the system that works, for it isn’t easy to deduce. What is likely needed is degrees of separation that connect the above.

For example:

Game Developer pays Graphic Designer 1LC (LifeCoin)
Graphic Designer pays Accountant 1LC
Accountant pays Bakery 1LC <<< is not a primarily labour-intensive business, has real-world, fiat currency costs!
Bakery pays SEO company 1LC
SEO Company pays Game Developer (for in-app ads) 1LC

We effectively have a bartering system that uses a cryptocurrency. It works great on a simplistic level.

Major issue – the balancing act

What if the Graphic Designer gets more LC than they can spend? With a fiat currency, our entire world revolves around it, and finds a use for it. Not so with a fledgling currency that needs to be different and not convertible.
(Why not convertible? Well, it renders it meaningless – why not just use the dollar anyway??)

So we need an extra mechanism, one that takes care of deficits and surpluses. A bank? With interest rates?
That still doesn’t work – because you can’t cash out beyond what is available to buy with a LC. And, initially, that is limited.

And we cannot convert it to a fiat currency. So what else can it be used for? What has value and is open-ended?

Here are some random ideas, not to be taken seriously, just testing the water:

Status – hey look at me, I have many!
Offspring – your great-great-grandchildren might need a personal trainer
Capital Investment – there is value in ownership beyond dividends
Charity – labor-intensive charity work could be paid

My Best Guess (so far)

Some Facebook-esque corporation will create an Augmented Reality overlay of our world (info, social and advertising), and link it to a virtual world of socialising and gaming. It will have an internal currency.

There are 2 ways a crypto-currency can launch, aside from speculation and ponzi schemes:

  1. A major corporation with a digital product simply brings it into being:

Google – receives money for digital advertising, and digital entertainment products, and gives money in the AdSense network.

2. A circular economy, based on labour-intensive work:

It still needs a catalyst. A play-to-earn video game is my best bet. A game so good that is success drives the model.

The Atheists Take Arms!

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Intelligent believers in democracy often have a conundrum – possibly the majority of voters are not smart enough to choose the right people. Yet they accept it, because everyone, regardless, should get to vote.

The same goes for religion. It does a lot of harm and tends to trend towards telling others how to live. But atheists allow it, because everyone should have the right to their own beliefs.

Yet as society becomes more informed, and in many lands the left and right are not getting on so well – the right tend to be religious, because they don’t like change, and Christianity is 2000 years old – there is significant tension.

The atheists, not so blindly self-righteous, and not backed by a god, are not the type to take arms. And yet they are losing, whether they are in Kashmir, the southern US, or Saudi Arabia. So what can be done, to not have the religious dictate the lives of the non-religious?

Separatism – in the US, while not easy to achieve, many will shift where they live to somewhere that does not have a majority of religious people. Meanwhile someone in Portland might move to Texas to ensure they have lots of grandkids.

Damnation – shame the wrongs of religion in social media, and out any religious hypocrites (like the many fans of banning abortions who actually had one…)

Ridicule – suggest that they adhere to everything the Bible decrees

But whatever we do, don’t take arms. We would lose a war, and the other team gets off on martyrs.

But here’s the reason I wrote this:

Parallel Societies

We all know that apartheid was bad, but that was one-sided. What if both sides decided they didn’t want anything to do with each other?

I’m not joking. Let’s have schools and buses and shopping malls and football leagues and banks that are either for the righteous or the damned.

Let’s start with an absolute schism, everything cut in half. And then let folk decide that (in most of society) they would rather live and let live, because it is easier. Learn to love and respect our differences.

OR…

Maybe start excluding religious people?

(legally)

A business could ask customers to promise to be pro-choice. That is not religious discrimination… Not any more than Chick-fil-A not opening on Sundays.

Punishing Tour Schedules in Golf and Tennis

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While personally I am disgusted to anyone who sells their souls to the Saudis, the oft-mentioned reason given by the pro golfers is that they don’t want to play a tournament every week of the year. Fair enough too, given that high performance athletes need breaks, and people who have earned 10s of millions might feel like they deserve breaks.

Yet, for golf especially, where results of the even the top players can be very uneven, the more tournaments there are means better data to work out who – on average – is the best. We know that the #1 player can go all year without actually winning…

The thing is, to get the maximum ranking points, you need to play 20 tournaments per year. One you factor in that they last 4 days (if you make the cut), and there are important practise rounds. Pro-Ams are on Wed, so the tournament is actually Mon-Sun, 7 days. Add one day for travelling and you can see why 20 tournaments is the most you would want to play…

Once you appear in 20+ tournaments, the average result of all of those is used for your rank. Results are used for your rank for the following 2 years, and they throw in recency bias as well. The major tournaments are worth more points, because they know that everyone will be there.

There is a solution, although it makes it harder for the average fan to understand.

  • Reduce the required tournaments to 10 (the negative being that fans get to watch the stars less often, potentially)
  • Base the weighting of tournament scores based on the average rank of who plays in it

Two things will happen:

Players will play as often as they want, so no more complaining. Quite likely the money, and the need to actually have tournament fitness, will mean they mostly keep the same schedule as they currently do.

There will be more variety in who plays which tournament. Lower ranked players can choose between lofty ambitions or achievable goals, as they already can do with the different tours (same goes for tennis).

The top players will trend towards the prize money more, tournaments that suit their majors preparation more, and tournaments that will get them the most points more.

Somehow or other, the top players will cluster more in the same tournaments than they do now. They will evolve things, not the PGA.