Too Big To Fail – A Rule of Thirds

A recent tech outage – Crowdstrike bringing down Windows systems – showed us yet again how fragile we are with important infrastructure. Because of just-in-time processes and finely optimised systems, some failure that is truly tragic will only be noticed afterwards. To mitigate this, and improve redundancy greatly, and save society from monopolies and provide jobs and lessen inequality… we only need one rule.

In nominated critical industries (there will be many), no business and no system can have more than one-third market share.

An easy example is computer operating systems. They need to make sure they never have more than 33% share in any industry, for example airline booking systems. Neither can computer manufacturers, RAM makers, microchip makers, hard drive makers. At least 3 software companies must make the booking systems, and they cannot share code.

Bananas are mostly Cavendish in Australia – that needs to change.

Achieving this rule is actually very easy. Dominant players charge more, degrade quality or remove features until they lose appeal enough for some other to have inroads.

The problem we have today is industries are like a game of chicken, and the less resilient you are, the more potential upsides and downsides. It is risk for profits, and sometimes a race to the bottom. Recently some emerging car companies failed because interest rates went up. They were too finely leveraged.

There are industries controlled by a few (meat-packers in the US, supermarkets in Australia) which only has one advantage – market efficiency to enrich their owners. Every else about their duopolies (or whatever three players is called) is a negative to the rest of society.

With the rise of the machines/AI, we will need more jobs, and some inefficiencies will be good for us.

Back to the computer example – we can easily have Windows/Mac/Linux. Having multiple sources of microprocessors would be great! Instead of 90% coming from Taiwan. Having spaceships going to the space station using different computer systems will mean those astronauts have two ways to get home. When the airline booking systems go down, it only affects a third of airlines (per country). Or supermarket checkouts.

We could even perhaps extend it to money – as in state currencies cost enough of a premium that crypto alternatives become appealing.

Per Person Apps

We have many ways of communicating with one person – email, SMS, calls, Facebook Messenger, Snapchat and so on. I have several annoying friends who use multiple forms of chat to reach me, often one a few minutes after the other if I don’t respond obediently.

If all of these apps shared a common protocol, and gave permissions to the OS, then the OS could aggregate the communications on a per person basis.

On my phone screen I could see an app named Barry, and clicking on it will show all my communications with Barry in a single, uniform interface. Replying to any of Barry’s messages would default to the app it came via, but that can be changed if I want.

Most of us would have less than 10 people that need a per person app. For business folk, they could perhaps be in folders of type, like potential client, existing client, exec team

Dear Everyone

Advice app. Primarily romantic and social issues

Maximum 10 questions per day are sent out. Randomly chosen. Vetted by the developers..

Submitted question expires after 1 week if not chosen. Prompted to resubmit if still relevant. Max 1 question per month for anyone

Get points for giving advice. Points increase your chance of being chosen.

Questions have up to five answers, multiple can be selected

Questioner selects the advice they have taken.

Questioner is prompted to let the result be known, happy or otherwise. With commentary. Bonus points for those whose advice helped. Negative for bad advice that was taken.

Comments allowed but heavily vetted. Comments cost points.

The best questions/ results can appear on a chat video to promote the app.

Monetized later >>> One of the questions is a short 2 min survey. Many Points for answering.

Dual-Battery Phones

I was slightly disturbed to read that Emirates are switching to digital-only boarding passes. What if your phone dies?

Which got me thinking – your phone is becoming more and more necessary for everyday life, and everyone has battery issues. Yet your phone’s functions can be divided into essential (paying for things, being an actual phone, messages) and non-essential (games, Tik-Tok).

Whether actually having two different batteries and perhaps even operating systems, or whether virtually doing so, I think splitting the two types of function could become necessary.

Very simplistically, when your battery gets down to 30%, games and so on cannot be run, and only essentials will. It won’t be told to you like that – you will be told that your gaming battery is empty.

The other option could be two phones, an essential phone, and a game/social/camera device. They could even be joined together, two different sides of the one device, with screens front and back.

The Return of Sponsorship

Soap Operas were named after being sponsored by a soap company. One company instead of a variety of ads.

ChatGPT etc will spawn an answer service (as distinct from a search engine). It might only happen when we fully understand what it can give accurate answers to. Quite possibly it outputs answers and ideas to explore. The latter being a fancy way of saying it is not confident of being correct.

People will learn what an answer service is good for. It won’t be for finding a local plumber! Which means the types of ads we see in search engines won’t necessarily apply.

If you want a summary of the best features of an iPhone, then perhaps the ads we are used to seeing on Google can appear there. But I expect it would be more like this:

  • Sponsored ad at the top, from a sponsor – one advertiser who sponsors all queries of that type. For example, an electronics store could sponsor all tech queries.
  • Embedded affiliate links to products – possibly a link to something akin to Google Shopping
  • A list of suggested resources, commercial or otherwise, at the bottom
  • Below those resources, some contextual ads, like on Google Search. Yep, relegated to the bottom, but still existing because why not.

But the sponsorship will be new and lucrative. All requests for the system to conjure up imagined lyrics can be sponsored by Spotify. All generative images by Adobe. And so on.

It could become new/fresh/different enough to become a successful form of advertising. We might see the return of soaps sponsoring TV shows.

Passenger CoPilot Device for Cars

AR glasses will come, but it is taking forever, so I thought about intermediate technology that might help it become real.

Imagine this:

A detachable large tablet for the front passenger of a car. It will not work unless attached to a special hinge which ensures that the driver will be unable to view the screen.

The screen shows the same view as the windscreen, but with AR elements overlayed.

The copilot then does what they have often done historically with paper maps. They help the driver. Useful for these scenarios:

  • Finding the house/building that is their destination
  • Finding out where the closest gas station is – or charging station
  • Checking alternate routes
  • Getting info on business and places that they are driving past – that restaurant has a lunch deal!
  • Ordering something before arriving

Why it works:

  • Technology already exists, and could be quite cheap
  • Avoids the dangers of similar in a HUD for drivers
  • Unique selling point for the car brands who offer it
  • A low-commitment entry into the AR space for Apple, Alphabet or Meta

It could also be used for audio playlists, car data, adjusting air conditioning, games, movies (with bluetooth headphones) – the latter uses for back seat passengers with a screen built into the back of the front seats.

Being built in is good for safety.

4-factor authentication & the vault

For 3FA, the standard options are:

  • something you know – PIN or password
  • something you are – fingerprint or face scan
  • something you have – a phone or dongle

For most purposes that is plenty, but what if you need an extra level of security. It could be, for example, to access a Swiss bank account. Or, I propose The Vault:

The Vault is where you store documents that you would keep in a safe at home. Birth certificate, for example.

It can also be where you keep your BFF list. By mutual agreement, and retractable at any time, two people decide that each can always access the latest contact details of the other – phone, address, email, current location – when they access the vault. A good way of keeping track of relatives, for example.

The Fourth Factor is location. You select one or more physical locations that are not your work or home or family member’s home, and you are there when you set up the Vault, and you have to be there to access it.

Simple, and easily done via any phone, and to steal that fourth factor would take a lot more effort from the bad guys. 3FA should be highly safe, but 4FA feels safer, and is fine for things you only very occasionally access.

Notelocation-based authentication has been invented, it just doesn’t seem to be used, or imagined to be used as above. It has been about basically being physically present at work.

Augmented Reality and Supermarkets

So I came across this image and it got me thinking. I belong to several supermarket loyalty programs, something they are quite good at is remembering products I have bought and telling me (in emails) when they are on sale (on special as we say in Australia).

So, forget about fridge apps, and online ordering. I’m thinking purely of an enhancement to what I already do as an in-person supermarket shopper who uses their loyalty program.

It works best if you only use one supermarket…

  1. Open the loyalty app
  2. Photograph the box or barcode of a product that you had bought and just used
  3. Speak your opinion – Growly likes this dog food

In a multi-person household, or even if you are scatter-brained and single… it means that you have a system that remembers which brands you like, or dislike. Per person.

So not only does your emails about sale items become more enhanced (things you prefer, not just things you bought), your AR experience in the supermarket can be awesome. The AR glasses and show you, like the image above, the products you like and where they are. For example, Oliver’s favourite muesli bars, or Maria’s preferred variety of apple. You could walk down every aisle and let the AR do most of the thinking for you. Faster and fewer mistakes that get you yelled at when you return home.

Lab-Grown Human Eggs and Human Sperm

While scientists can behave ethically, few let ethics get in the way of advancing knowledge and techniques. If they can do it, typically they will.

Which means that now or in the future, someone is going to create a human baby completely outside of the human body. And by using stem cells, it can happen without the permission of the genetic parents. Crazy!

Mice have already been born from real mouse sperm and lab-created mouse eggs. They were healthy and soon became parents themselves, so they passed the hybrid burdle.

2009: Human egg cells grown in a lab.

2016: Lab-created mouse sperm makes babies

2016: Lab-created mouse egg makes babies

2022: Lab-generated human sperm

2022: First synthetic mouse embryos

You can see the trajectory… it will happen – synthetically made humans – it is simply a matter of who and when. China is an obvious bet.

And factor in that declining populations are a problem for capitalist societies, and we could be making artificial kids purely to be worker consumers.

Reddit can be the Next Twitter

Reddit already has everything in place that you need to replace Twitter. Actually, it is better than Twitter in all of these ways:

  • Self-moderation
  • Variety of post types
  • Better structure for discussions
  • Premium membership for $6/mo
  • Smarter crowd?

You can follow people on Reddit, so all they need to make it work as a Twitter-replacement as well is:

  • Short form posts than can be filtered for
  • User home pages that are their own communities (already exists, post to your profile)

In fact, anyone can make their own community. Famous people can “blue tick” themselves by simply linking to it from somewhere else they are verified. And short posts are already do-able.

Reddit can make this happen. The amount of coding is minimal, and they would get enough new users to get the valuations and users for an IPO that they are planning anyway.

You can post on Reddit and have it automatically share in on Twitter. It doesn’t look amazing, but you can use the Reddit title to be your “tweet”.