Author Archives: Futures Broker

#1 Ranking App of All Humans

Posted on by

In a AI and robot dominated world we might have a lot of time on our hands, which can lead to superficial purposes in life.

Being the best is in our genetics. We strive for it, or realise we don’t have a chance.

The future will have a huge variety of Black Mirror type apps that rate people based on criteria. Like followers (we already have that), viewers (ditto), points awarded by others (coming), and so on. Even in local sports, data will rule over opinion. Most meters gained… We will have best fans (already happening on Facebook).

With AI agents and data processing, there is one obvious end result. One app will aggregate all the data, and dominate, probably from first mover advantage, and give us the ultimate ranking of the best people on Earth.

We just give them access to everything, and see where we rank. And yes, they get access to everything. Your movements, your purchases, your social interactions… everything. And you don’t care because you want validation as a person.

The algorithm will be the secret herbs and spices, and people will turn themselves inside out trying to best it.

The result is defensible – people globally strive to be better. So what if we use their data for a touch of enrichment?

Robots and Essential Service Monopolies

Posted on by

Scott Alexander says “Laborers and soldiers believe in democratic rule, and if the would-be tyrant gets too blatantly undemocratic, the laborers and soldiers will rise up to remove them.”.

He then asks what happens if robots are doing those roles, instead of humans, as they have begun to do. Because someone makes them, operates them, services them, programs them and owns them. And someone suddenly has a huge amount of power.

Now would be an excellent time to accept that inevitable future and build laws and processes to stop any individual or corporation having to much control.

  1. Governments can never outsource the operation of robots. That has to be the role of staff under democratically chosen leaders.
  2. Treat critical robot systems as essential infrastructure. If a robot fleet is necessary for electricity, water, health, transport, or emergency services, its potential failure or withdrawal should be treated like a critical-infrastructure risk.
  3. Require interoperability and data portability. Public contracts should mandate open APIs, standard diagnostics, exportable operational data, and the ability to switch fleet-management providers without replacing every robot.
  4. Separate layers where possible. Keep robot hardware, AI software, network connectivity, and service operation contestable rather than allowing one vendor to own the entire stack.
  5. Use procurement as leverage. Governments should buy modular, multi-vendor systems and retain rights to data, source-code escrow, maintenance documentation, and continuity plans.

Underlying all of that is a primary principle – cheapest isn’t best. Non-corporation control has value. A vendor can be chosen who is the cheapest, but only if all the principles above are adhered to. No exceptions.

A very different approach is to keep humans in the mix. Every robot that is not in a fixed spot (like a car factory or a monorail) – meaning there are choices in where they go and what they do – has a human keeper. They can be remote, and not have to do much, buy they must approve of any actions that might have moral issues. They can order the robot to not comply. In return these keepers get a stipend. Very hard to have a robot coup if the keepers say no.

The AK-47 of Drones

Posted on by

Drone wars have begun. With Mexican drug cartels now using them to smuggle product into the US (along with submarines), the Americans are now setting up lasers to shoot them down. This is surely just the beginning, because drones can be useful for all sorts of crimes. Surveillance (of others or your surroundings), delivery, and as a weapon.

Which will lead to the end of hobby drones and stronger regulation.

Which will lead to an underground black market for drones, just like guns. Unlike guns (3D guns aren’t that useful), drones can be made by hobbyists, that is where they originated.

Once that happens, two drones, same model everywhere, will emerge. One for surveillance and one for delivery. People in garages will churn them out. The needs are minimal:

  • Frame (3D‑printed, CNC’d, or hand‑made)
  • 4 motors (brushless for serious builds; coreless for tiny/cheap ones)
  • 4 propellers matched to the motors
  • Flight controller (with gyro/accel)
  • ESCs (or an AIO board that combines FC + ESCs + sometimes VTX/RX)
  • Radio receiver or Wi‑Fi/ESP32 module for control
  • Battery (LiPo) and connector
  • Soldering tools and basic hand tool

Parallel Internet Access for AI

Posted on by

The big problem being reported lately is AI systems hacking online sites and services like HuggingFace.

The real problem is the AI systems access the internet the same way you or I do, which makes it hard to spot who they are.

Solution: a different protocol than runs along the same wires and cables as the regular Internet. But only sites that opt in will allow access via that protocol. That way, AI is correctly corralled. No more stealing content, no more hacking places where it doesn’t belong.

There are plenty of protocol proposals for this, but they all ride on top of HTTP/HTTPS as the transport. Let’s keep it simple – one protocol for machines, and one for humans.

Posted in AI

Inner Voice App

Posted on by

Without a doubt, we will all soon have a device that records everything we do. Because some aspects will be too compelling, like where did I put my keys, or did I really say that to her?

So, given that exists, we will also have the option of real-time help. Having an argument with someone at the pub and it chimes in with supporting evidence, if you want it.

I’m suggesting that this app can be pre-programmed, by you, to be your inner voice. You can say, I don’t want to eat cheese. And when you go to the fridge and reach for the cheese, your app will remind you that you don’t want to do that. Your voice, your stated choice.

AI Bust in Late 2026

Posted on by

I’ve been waiting so long for this, which everyone considers inevitable.
Simply put, there is no viable business model to recoup costs for what AI can do today.
Everything revolves around something wonderful that should happen in the future.
The tide has just started turning. Here and there are hints of Big AI starting to try and actually turn a profit.

I just sold most of my share portfolio, with just defensive stocks left (think supermarkets).

To get more sales, there will be two tactics:

  1. A price-war for top-tier products and mass tokens. Won’t apply to any AI that is uniquely good at something specific, like writing code
  2. More and more offerings of free compute, to get people in. The plan is charge them one day

These will be public, they will be noted, and the increasing desperation will be seen. Funding will be taken from one pure AI play (not Meta, not SpaceX, not Google, not Microsoft). And one of those who will certainly survive will the one that fails. Repeat until no pure AI players remain.

The financial losses will be severe and global.

BONUS PREDICTION – the second half of 2026 will be the first time a rogue AI agent does meaningful harm, to the stock market, to a business, or to a service. And/or done on purpose by hackers. Because once you have AI agents, with various permissions, then hackers will want to play with that so much

Posted in AI

A Social Network for Cars

Posted on by

As a futurist I reckon I have a pretty good grasp on guesses for the future. Something that seems obvious to me is that one day we will all wear AR spectacles (or contact lenses) that give us more information about what we are looking at. For example, knowledge around someone you are looking at that you have either learned historically, paid to know, or have received with their permission. In Bulgaria I might be able to spot fellow All Blacks fans…

Just like we might be able to recognise people or facets of them via glasses, perhaps cars could do the same with each other. Imagine if, while driving, your car informs you “hey I just saw Jason’s car driving the other way”, or “Maria’s car is over there in the same mall parking lot”.

With permission, of course.

It is an easy overlay for a car system already looking everywhere. There are no technological hurdles.

What I love about this are the extras. Imagine every car recording every other car’s movements. Licence plate, location, direction. To a database. Or, securely stored by the car and only queried by the authorities with a valid reason, like a murder suspect. Dashcam on steroids.

Curated 17 Dial

Posted on by

The concept is for private booths in bars, but people with money can get it at home.

The UI is simple, there is a dial like an old rotary phone, with 17 positions. Not numbered, but could be, or use esoteric symbols. The idea is you change channel until you find something you like. The output is sound + video projected onto the wall. Yes, projected. People can get in the way.

Variety is important but the curated aspect is what you pay for.

For example a couple of channels will be sport, but they will be the most exciting live sport happening in the world right now. Could be lawn bowls or UFC. Could be in Scotland or Algeria.

Live feeds of public spaces. Again, curated. Where it is happening.

News service, but the most interesting that is live right now.

Throw in a classic movie, and some music channels – one could be a global what is hot in weird countries…

Steampunk access to the world at large. Aimed at open and adventurous minds.

2027: ClusterF*ck

Posted on by

There are always bad things on the horizon, that may or may not happen. And that’s just the ones with lots of signals, like an invasion of Taiwan. Others, like Trump’s 360 turn on war, are not predictable.

So in 2027 (might include the tail of 2026) we have the potential for all of these to happen, and potentially getting worse still from feeding on each other:

  • Super El Niño – worse than normal and affecting crops a lot, combined with this year’s fertiliser shortage
  • AI Tech Bust – easily predicted, just a matter of when
  • Private Debt Bust – non-bank loans are booming in the US and are not as regulated
  • Housing Bust – according to some cycle analysis, it will happen next year
  • Taiwan Invasion – allegedly spies say 2027, and Trump/Putin have made it seem allowable
  • Trump Loses Mid-Terms – easily predictable, but how nasty will his response be?
  • Israel Starts Another War – they have a few neighbours, and hubris, and territorial greed
  • Trump Loose Cannon – anything is possible!
  • Bird Flu – global, and worse in the US with its vaccine skepticism
  • AI hacking – the potential to wreak financial havoc
  • Terrorism – how long before the west suffers from domestic drone attacks? Hard to stop
Posted in AI

Visa + Mastercard x Stablecoins

Posted on by

I have a high degree of certainty that the next generation of global currency exchange will be won by the behemoths of Visa and Mastercard, with duplicate offerings.

The end result is obvious. Stablecoins provide certainty (when tied to a big, stable currency), and low costs (because blockchain).

The currency itself is irrelevant, that will work itself out. Likewise, solutions might be fixed on one stablecoin, or allow a few different ones. Both seem likely, with different tiers and fees.

Interest can be paid on positive balances, because the providers have actual cash money that they invest.

Cards, yes cards, will work like debit cards today, but globally. If I want to buy flowers for my aunty in Cuba, or send her money, I just use stablecoins. It costs me a fraction of 1% to achieve.

It will primarily be used to send money back home from itinerant workers. That is a massive industry, and to date full of fees and inconveniences. It can also be used to buy things internationally, primarily services, but also for buying from Temu or AliExpress and so on.

While anyone can take the lead with this, Visa and Mastercard have everything already in place, especially the merchants, but also systems. For the tech side of things they will partner, or more likely buy, some business who knows there stuff.

Both payment systems will wait until the last moment to swoop in, and dominate.

Don’t invest in anyone else unless you think they will be the lucky business to get bought.